Professor Prodi will stay, if only for now

Not dissimilar to their afternoon siesta, the Italians' approach to elections is sedentary. If anyone thinks the electoral process in India is pedestrian, please think again!

After a virtual dead heat, the centre-left alliance led by a Professor from Bologna,  Romano Prodi, 66, a former prime minister and one time president of the European Commission, breasted the tape ahead of the centre-right coalition of the incumbent premier, Silvio Berlusconi. But the opera didn't end there.

Berlusconi alleged fraud. Over the Easter weekend, a re-count of 80,000 ballots took place, in an electorate of 40 million. This failed to convert his crucifixion into a resurrection. On Wednesday, Italy's Supreme Court upheld the result.

Berlusconi is capable of mounting a legal challenge, but this is likely to be fruitless. Besides, the United States has also pulled the rug on him by recognising Prodi's victory, which it hadn't done when leaders of Britain, France and Germany extended their congratulations a week earlier.

Berlusconi is a favourite of George Bush after the former extended unstinting support to the US invasion of Iraq. His opponents fear the longer he is a caretaker, the more likely he will try to fix the result in his favour by bribery or dirty tricks.

Only after a new president, who is the constitutional head, is elected in the second week of May, will the person chosen as leader of the 630 member Chamber of Deputies and the 315 seater Senate be invited to take charge of the executive.

It could nearly be the end of May before this happens. The president does possess the powers to try and forge a left-right amalgamation, if the two houses of parliament are split between the two formations. But there is no such possibility this time.    

Italy has a post-war history of short-lived governments, but rapid industrialisation. But Berlusconi, 69, a billionaire merchant of Milan, who has been his country's longest serving head of government since the fascist war-time leader, Mussolini, had set his sights on a hat-trick, though the political stability of the past eight years had not translated into economic success.

Last year, Berlusconi introduced full proportional representation—which Prodi described as his rival making "an electoral law for himself".

The observations of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe that there had been misgivings about the late adoption of new electoral laws and unbalanced coverage by parts of Italian media, were interpreted as veiled criticism of the outgoing head of government. 

Given his media monopoly, he managed to arouse his otherwise apathetic right-wing vote bank with a high voltage campaign, which focussed on him; and avoided issues. He amused, defiled and scandalised. It struck a chord. About 84 percent of voters turned out, reversing a 20-year trend of declining interest.

Prodi, familiar to the Indian external affairs establishment, is expected to steer Italy back towards a closer relationship with the EU. He has been a strong opponent of Washington's policy towards Iraq. He will almost certainly carry through the decision to withdraw Italian troops from Iraq. The relationship with India has distinct possibilities.

The fact that European pro-activity to prevent Iran from enriching uranium has been kept a preserve of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, suggests Italy has slipped out of the "Serie A" of the EU.

But Rome could make a comeback by advocating a fast track to greater integration for interested member states, which Prodi passionately supports.      

But economic reconstruction rather than diplomatic restructuring could pre-occupy him. Italy is now the ailing figure of Europe, with either recession or low growth in recent years and public finances in excessive deficit.

He is bound to introduce some tax cuts, create competition, reduce labour costs and crack down on the mafia, one of whose Dons was arrested recently.

Prodi has defeated Berlusconi twice in as many contests. On the previous occasion, in 1996, his government lasted only two years. This time, too, given the wafer thin majority, a full term looks remote.

Tailpiece: The 100,000 odd Indians comprise—after the British—the second largest immigrant population in Italy.

Yet, far from a person of Italian descent becoming one of the most powerful politicians in India today, there wasn't a single candidate of Indian origin in the just concluded polls. A handful, though, are beginning to show interest at the local level.

The writer is Editor-Director, RayMedia  London.