End game in Nepal?

Rahul Barua

KATHMANDU: When he assumed absolute power last year, Nepal’s King Gyanendra promised that he was merely paving the way for a return to real democracy. But the minute he got his way, he conveniently forgot all about that promise. As a result, today the country is engulfed by violence and he himself is in a dangerous and difficult corner. Now that the King has made it clear that he is not about to give up power without a fight, the normally fractious political parties have come together and made common cause with Maoist insurgents to come to some arrangement which will restore normalcy to the Himalayan kingdom. Gyanendra has responded with military violence and curfews causing untold misery to the people whom, he as a living Vishnu, is meant to safeguard.

But time is running out for the King. He has shut off all opportunities for negotiations with political parties. He is not inclined to multi-party democracy, he rejects any deal with the Maoists and will not contemplate a lesser role for himself. The manner in which the seven-party alliance is consolidating its position in Nepal and trying its best to regain its lost mass base suggests that in time they may also come around to supporting the Maoists’ demand for the constitution of a republic.

Gyanendra is playing a futile game if he thinks he can divide and rule. His efforts to spilt the multi-party political alliance are doomed to failure. He is now resorting to seek the support of the VHP by positioning himself as the world’s only Hindu king. The ongoing protests on Kathmandu’s streets cannot be ignored given the extent of support they are getting from a normally passive civil society.

Gyanendra’s efforts to project his son Crown Prince Paras as a suitable successor have failed. The playboy prince’s recent visit to Austria at a huge expense to the bankrupt country has resulted in public revulsion. No one but the most naïve believe that the King has a stake in democracy or even in a benign monarchy. He clearly has no regard for the well-being of the people who are among the poorest in the world.

Many may argue that the experiment with democracy did not produce worthwhile results either. But in spite of allegations of nepotism and rampant corruption during democratic regimes, the country saw vibrant economic growth during 1991-2004. During the period of absolute monarchy, people were not only oppressed and deprived of any political rights, but Nepal has also been increasingly cut off from the outside world. Once a tourist paradise, today luxury hotels are offering rooms for as little as one dollar. Yet, there are no takers.

So far India has supported the two-pillar theory, one being the King and the other the political parties. With the Maoists and the political parties coming together, New Delhi may have to rethink its approach. India is under pressure to play a more proactive role in Nepal now that it is clear that the King has no intention of going quietly or even agreeing to any role which does not carry with it absolute power.

Naturally, both India and the US have worries about the Maoists coming into the picture as a major player in a future political formation. These are largely unfounded. There is every indication that the Maoists have come to the realisation that in order to join the mainstream, they have to reinvent themselves and fulfill their commitment to the seven-party alliance.  

India must take the lead due to two main factors. One, of course, is that Nepal’s security has a direct impact on India. The other is that without India in the picture, the field is wide open for other peace-brokers. An example is the Norwegian efforts in Sri Lanka. Though well-meaning, these have not helped solve the island nation’s problems.
To facilitate India’s involvement, the political parties in Nepal must go beyond mere protests. They must come out immediately with a definite socio-economic programme and a common minimum agenda in which the role of the Maoists is clearly defined.

Despite everything, the situation today holds great potential. For once, the major and credible political parties are united, civil society is speaking up and the Maoists are willing to engage in dialogue. What we are seeing today is the largest and most decisive mass movement Nepal has ever seen.

The monarch will try to cling on for as long as he can. In his own interests, it would be wise for him to step aside and assume a lower profile. For too long, the world has ignored the developments in Nepal. It must now engage with the people’s movement and help to usher in a new and democratic era in the battered nation.

The writer is secretary general, South Asia Foundation, New Delhi.