Not quite a done deal

Barely has the ink run dry on the Manmohan Singh-George Bush nuclear agreement that it appears to have run into trouble on Capitol Hill. Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran is sweating it out in Washington, trying to get Congressmen on board to ensure that the deal has a smooth passage through Congress and reports indicate that it has so far been an uphill task.

It may also have come as a surprise to sanguine Indian policy makers that the principal opposition to the deal has come from vocal Democrats, including Senator Hillary Clinton, often perceived in India as a friend. The much vaunted India caucus—a group of Congressmen who have been assiduously wooed by South Block and non resident Indians as a pressure group—is also showing signs of skepticism about the deal. What is really worrying Washington watchers however is that the bill that was tabled opposing the deal has bipartisan support and was tabled by Republican Fred Upton.

Entrenched non-proliferation lobby groups, often called the Ayatollahs for their fundamentalist convictions on the issue—have wielded considerable influence against the deal. The cynical view is that if the deal goes through, pressure groups stand to loose their reason to exist. But many of them find it principally wrong that exceptions be made to the entire global nuclear architecture simply to favour one country. They are aided by lobbyists for countries such as Pakistan who want a similar deal for themselves.

This is election year and most politicians are concentrating on that. George Bush has staked enormous political capital on the deal and would want to run it through the Congress—which is controlled by Republicans—before the elections. However should the deal be delayed beyond November, and the Republicans lose the control of the two houses, it may go into cold storage.

The India caucus needs a re-look too. It may have too many members who do not have the interests of the emerging relationship at heart. Indeed, in addition, we may have to get used to the fact that for all our many economic achievements, Indians remain on the margins of political influence in the US. The deal may yet go through, but for that, momentum as well as a lot of hard work will be the key. The Indian foreign policy establishment has many hot and sweaty months ahead.