Obama’s visit may not achieve much

It might be unfair to prejudge the impact of US president Barack Obama’s visit to India this weekend, but there are indications that the results will be underwhelming.

There are two reasons for this. First, Obama’s political fortunes at home are set to take a beating in the Congressional elections now underway.

The other reason is that there are no positive big ticket political issues on the agenda — like the civil nuclear deal agreed during president George Bush’s 2006 visit.

The emphasis is on trade, with Obama leading a large business delegation.

While it is customary for heads of state and government to push for their domestic business interests, it can never be the centrepiece of a presidential initiative.

India-US business is growing very well, but this is not thanks to either government. In fact, both governments are putting obstacles in the path of business. Obama is getting tough on outsourcing, and India is going ever so slowly in opening up the economy.

Most likely, India will make its displeasure clear on Obama’s anti-outsourcing initiatives and ask him to rein in terror from across the border. But nothing much may come of either plea.

That Obama will be spending two of his three days in Mumbai underscores the business theme. But Obama’s focus on social issues and political piety is not something that interests Mumbaikars very much. Paying tribute to victims of the 26/11 terror attacks, visits to Mani Bhavan and interactions with college students are all great photo-ops, but for most business-minded Mumbaikars these are minor distractions.

In short, it is quite possible that the Obama visit may turn out to be like Jimmy Carter’s in 1978. Great expectations, dud delivery. But if neither the Yamuna nor the Potomac is going to be set on fire, the good news is that we don’t need anything spectacular to spice up the US-India relationship.

The bad news — for Obama — is that he cannot hope to derive much comfort and advantage domestically from his India trip.