‘Talking to Pakistan is a fool’s errand’

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made concessions towards Pakistan in having talks but the failed engagement has only soured ties. The fall guy is home secretary GK Pillai, but the talks were always doomed. Outside of the obvious attempt to assuage the US, the riddle is why India ever agreed to meet with Pakistan to discuss issues of trust, when India now has proof that Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI, plotted the Mumbai attacks.

The mood is also stubborn in Pakistan. General Ashraf Kayani is in no mood to talk, much less listen to India. Aside from having been given a rare three-year extension, Kayani has no desire to compromise with India as Pakistan seizes the upper hand in Afghanistan.

“Prime minister Singh has invested far too much political capital in talks with Pakistan and it is time for him to cut his losses,” said author and South Asia expert Sumit Ganguly, who holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University at Bloomington. Ganguly, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, talked to DNA in New York about how Pakistan is the power broker in the settlement of the Afghan conflict. He said the White House is shifting its Afghanistan strategy towards talks with the Taliban, leaving India counting its losses. Negotiations will be conducted through Pakistan and Saudi Arabia which have back-channel links to the Taliban.

What do recent events indicate about the situation in Pakistan and how do you see things developing?
The situation in Pakistan is disastrous — hardly a day goes by without a bombing or suicide attack whether successful or foiled. The Pakistani military, on the other hand, must be gleeful because it has successfully squeezed out another half a billion dollars from the US as assistance.

Additionally, they have just signed a trade agreement with Afghanistan which locks out India. They have got secretary Hillary Clinton to agree that negotiations can be opened with the Taliban as long as they don’t grossly mistreat women. This is an appalling set of developments — to think that the US initiated a war against the Taliban only to see the Taliban now negotiate their way back into a coalition regime, which heaven knows will last how long, after the Taliban works its way back into power. 

In the light of what America is doing in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it seems as though Washington has had a change of heart: why fight a war on terror when you can simply do deals with the terrorists?
The White House is revising its Afghanistan strategy to embrace the idea of negotiating with the Taliban through Pakistan. It undermines India’s interests in Afghanistan in a dramatic fashion. The last thing India wants to see is a return of any elements of the India-hating Taliban in a reconstituted government in Afghanistan.
The US will remain engaged with Afghanistan after July 2011 although president Obama is under pressure to reduce the US military footprint in Afghanistan because of war costs and bodies coming back in coffins. As it is, Democrats are going to take a hit in November’s Congressional elections because the economy is in the doldrums and the president doesn’t want to prolong an unpopular war. Still, the president is astute enough to know that a precipitate withdrawal would harm American interests.

David Headley’s interrogation again established ISI’s nexus with terror groups. The US is also onto the ISI’s schemes with Islamic militants, but can it do anything to stop it?
Of course it can, but it would really disrupt the official relationship with Pakistan. The US is caught in a cleft stick. If you exert too much pressure on the Pakistani civilian establishment over the ISI’s continuing dalliance with a host of jehadi groups including the Afghan Taliban and the Sirajuddin Haqqani network, it could rupture an already fragile relationship with Pakistan.

If the army calls the shots in Pakistan, is there any point in India talking to the civilian government?
After last week’s disastrous talks, India should wake up and smell the coffee. It can’t bolster the civilian Zardari regime by having discussions with it until Zardari finds a way of getting General Kayani to the table. It is a fool’s errand. Prime minister Singh has invested far too much political capital in this endeavor and I think it is time for him to cut his losses. He may be a good man but unfortunately there is a dearth of good men in the subcontinent to talk to.

How much does America’s foreign policy need Pakistan?
In the short term, American can’t do without Pakistan. The Pakistanis are extracting geostrategic rent from the US — they are exploiting their physical proximity to Afghanistan to further their own interests. In the process if the US is prepared to bribe them sufficiently then they will do a little of the American bidding. Let’s be clear about this — American and Pakistani interests have not been congruent for over a decade and it is not likely they are going to converge any time in the future. The sooner the US comes to terms with this the better.