Why has UPA-2 failed to live up to expectations?

It is customary to assess the performance of an incumbent government after a year in power. It is difficult to resist this urge, but my excuse is that I want to look at the underlying reasons for the performance, or the lack of it, of the UPA government in its second avatar. So, here goes.

First, the prime minister. As usual he gets high marks for personal sincerity, but if you were to compare Manmohan Singh in 2008-09 against him in 2009-10, the former wins hands down. The prime minister was fighting fit despite a heart condition in the dying years of UPA-1. He got the nuclear deal done; he worsted LK Advani in electoral combat, and was certainly a key factor in the urban voter’s decision to give the Congress a bigger mandate in 2009.

Over the last year, despite the exit of the Left from UPA-2, Manmohan Singh’s report card looks sketchy. He has not got anything done on Pakistan, on Naxalism, and the Kashmir situation. Why has he failed? In the last few months, he has been missing in action, and Sonia and Rahul Gandhi have hogged the credit for whatever little was achieved on the social front.
Manmohan Singh has been stuck with the failures.

Second, the finance minister. Here we have some success to report. Pranab Mukherjee not only managed to get his budget through, but will probably succeed in reducing the fiscal deficit substantially. If the markets behave, he will be flush with funds through public sector disinvestment, too. He hasn’t done so well on inflation, but with a good monsoon, even if he succeeds in bringing down inflation by a notch, he will get some credit. But does he deserve it?

Mukherjee’s “success” is largely the result of luck — huge revenues from the 3G spectrum auction and disinvestment. Inflation looks down due to the base effect (compared to last year’s high levels, this year’s increase looks like an achievement!). Moreover, since 2010-11 is not an election year, there is no urgency to splurge on NREGA or social sector schemes. These will be rolled out in 2012-14, just before the next general election. So, judgment on Mukherjee’s budget will have to wait till 2014.

Third, the home minister. P Chidambaram is just the right man for the job. But like Manmohan Singh, he is hobbled by the party. We have had party functionaries like Digvijay Singh carping at his Naxal strategy. While the PM is backing him, there’s not been a whiff of support from the likes of Sonia and Rahul, without whom no strategy to tackle Maoist terror will succeed.

He has managed to get his way on the NIA and in revamping the intelligence set-up, but he will ultimately be judged by the results he achieves on the Maoist threat and in cracking the domestic terror modules of the Lashkar and other Pakistani outfits. No sign of that.

Fourth, Kapil Sibal. He is probably one of the most gifted ministers in UPA-2. The Right to Education Act and the Foreign Universities Bill are likely to be the main feathers in his cap. But we will not be able to judge his achievements fully even over the entire term of the UPA, for education is not something that will deliver results in just a couple of years. But what is clear is that he has not completely thought through the negative elements in both policies.

The loopholes in the RTE might ensure high enrollments, but poor academic results. There are simply not enough good teachers and schools — and there is no mechanism to weed out bad schools. As for the foreign universities bill, without a balancing commitment to free the IITs and IIMs, we can be sure that these institutions will slowly wither away.

It is easy to dismiss the other ministers with one sentence each, for they have done practically nothing.  Krishna’s achievements in foreign policy can be written on the back of a postage stamp. AK Antony scores high on personal integrity, but is ineffective. He has not stopped scandals in defence purchases, but has succeeded in delaying much-needed modernisation. Murli Deora has been floating around without a clue on how to fix the petroleum sector, which is bleeding the Navratna oil companies dry.

He did not cover himself with glory in the way he handled the Mukesh-Anil dispute over Krishna-Godavari gas pricing. He could have spoken up years ago, when gas prices first became the subject of dispute. He woke up only when Mukesh Ambani lost the battle in the Bombay high court.

Civil aviation minister Praful Patel ought to be divested of his portfolio, for he has presided over the destruction of Air India and Indian Airlines. Jairam Ramesh as an environment minister has been making waves in areas outside his bailiwick. In China, he talked about the home ministry’s paranoia about Chinese companies, for which he had to apologise to Chidambaram.

The question is: Why has UPA-2 failed to live up to expectations, given its improved mandate? The answer lies in the question itself: success is measured against expectations. When they are high, whatever is achieved looks inconsequential. In UPA-1, with the Left blocking all the way, whatever little was achieved looked big.