China gives Pakistan some shade in its summer of troubles

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani went to China on a four-day visit recently to celebrate the year-long observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Of course, there is much to celebrate in a bilateral relationship that has been described as “higher than mountains and deeper than oceans.”

But at a time when Pakistan is under intense scrutiny for its role in fighting extremism and terrorism, the world would be watching with interest how China decides to deal with Pakistan. There are voices in the US asking the Obama Administration to partner with China to restore stability in Pakistan. There are also many in India who have suggested that China shares a range of objectives with not only the US but also with India that include a prosperous, sustainable, and secure Pakistan that does not remain a base for al Qaeda and its affiliates.

Yet recent Chinese actions provide little hope that any change in Chinese policy vis-a-vis Pakistan might be in the offing. China was perhaps the only major power that openly voiced its support for Pakistan after the bin Laden fiasco. Hailing the killing of Bin Laden as a “major event and a positive development in the international struggle against terrorism,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Jiang Yu did not fail to notice that “Pakistan stands at the forefront of the international struggle against terrorism”.

During the latest visit, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China would like to be an “all-weather strategic partner” and will do its best to help the Pakistani government and people get through their difficulties. To underscore its commitment, China has agreed to immediately provide Pakistan 50 new JF-17 Thunder multi-role jets.

Pakistan has supported China on all issues of importance to the latter, especially those related to the question of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, and other issues such as human rights. China has reciprocated by supporting Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir.

Over the years China has emerged as Pakistan’s largest defence supplier. China has played a major role in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure. Although China has long denied helping any nation attain nuclear capability, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has acknowledged the crucial role China has played by giving Pakistan fifty kilograms of weapons-grade enriched uranium and providing detailed plans of nuclear weapons.

Bilateral trade between China and Pakistan rose to US$15 billion last year. China’s “no-strings attached” economic aid to Pakistan is appreciated more than the aid it receives from the US, which often comes with conditions.

With the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari under intense pressure from the US to do more to fight terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil, there are calls in Pakistan to adopt a foreign policy which considers China and not the US to be Pakistan’s strongest ally.

Washington has historically been accused of using Pakistan in times of need and then deserting it for a policy that favours stronger relations with India. China is considered a reliable ally which has always come to Pakistan’s aid when India has seemed on the ascendant, to the extent that China has even supported Pakistan’s strategy of using terror as an instrument of policy against India. Not surprisingly, Pakistan has given China a “blank check” to intervene in India-Pakistan peace talks.

With India ascending in the global hierarchy and the US continuing to build a strong partnership with India, China’s need for Pakistan is likely to grow. This has been evident in Chinese polices towards Pakistan on critical issues in South Asia.

A rising India makes Pakistan all the more important in China’s strategy for the subcontinent. It is highly unlikely that China will give up playing the Pakistan card vis-a-vis India anytime soon.

The China-Pakistan partnership serves the interests of both partners by presenting India with a potential two-front th eatre in the event of war with either country. Each is using the other to counterbalance India, as India’s disputes with Pakistan keep it occupied and prevent it from attaining its potential as a major player.

It is therefore highly unlikely that China will be a credible partner for the US in stabilising Pakistan as is being argued by some. The focus on India will continue to cement an already solid Sino-Pak partnership in the coming years.