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Advanced systems can predict forecast of maximum up to next two weeks: William B Gail

The higher accuracy in the weather predictions in the US vis-a-vis India is a result of the perfect balance between the government, private and academic institutions dealing with the subject, says William B Gail, president of the American Meteorology Society. Gail, who is on a five-day visit to India spoke exclusively to Naziya Alvi Rahman about how the private sector of the meteorology industry caters to up to 95% weather forecasting in his country; something, he feels, India needs to work on. Excerpts.

Advanced systems can predict forecast of maximum up to next two weeks: William B Gail

Q: How is the meteorological system in the US different from its Indian counterpart?
A:
In the US the private sector dealing with meteorology is a several billion-dollar industry that caters to customised needs of a lot of other industries like agriculture, aviation, transport, media etc. Also, the three sectors involved in meteorology - government, private and academic-- work in close coordination with each other resulting in a stronger and more efficient system.

Q: An active private sector in meteorology is a relatively lesser known concept in India. Can you explain the role of the private sector in meteorology in your country?
A:
In the US, companies dealing with meteorological services like giving forecast are hired by various other industries. For instance, media houses, particularly news websites and TV channels, hire private companies for more accurate forecast details to compete with their rivals. Similarly in the transport sector, forecast services are used to check the weather conditions before sending a particular consignment. As per an estimate, $18 billion are lost every year across the US as transportation loses caused mostly by unpredictable weather conditions. Similarly, there are several other industries like aviation, agriculture, finance, which also need 'customised' meteorological services to which the private sector caters.

Q: In that case, what is the role of the government meteorological department?
A:
Our National Weather Services department gives regular updates on forecast but we as private industry compare it with forecasts provided by Canada and European system. The data analysed improves efficiency of the forecast by up to 10-30% in most cases. In January 2014, my particular company was evaluated as the most accurate weather forecasting private company. However, the government sector also spends a lot of time on predicting bigger calamities like typhoons and cyclones which are pretty common in America.

Q: Being a dominant agriculture society, rains have a direct impact on our economy. Can you predict something about the coming monsoon for us?
A:
In the US since we do not have a concept of seasonal rains, I am not an expert on the subject. However, I feel the meteorology department across the globe has failed to develop the "seasonal forecast" system. Most advanced systems can predict forecast of maximum up to next two weeks. However, I strongly feel its time for us to focus on developing this particular field to be able to prepare ourselves better in future.
 

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