5 reasons why Narayan Rane lost the Bandra bypolls

Before he lost the 2014 assembly polls, Narayan Rane seemed invincible to many in Mumbai. But his victory margins were diminishing. He was barely managing to get elected to the assembly. His son had lost in one of the Lok Sabha polls. Seats around Rane were going to Shiv Sena, NCP and BJP. All his trusted lieutenants were deserting him. Rane was fighting all alone and he was fighting like Don Quixote.

So when he announced his candidature for Bandra bypolls, there were quite a few who believed Rane will rise like a phoenix from the ashes. But that didn’t happen and he had to face defeat, that, too at the hands of a rookie Shiv Sena candidate Trupti Sawant. Why did it happen?

Reason 1: Trupti Sawant inherited the legacy of Sena’s silent performer Bala Sawant 

Bala Sawant, Sena’s MLA who died of cancer, was never known for fiery speeches. He was one of the most loyal Bal Thackeray aides. He nursed his constituency well, first as a municipal corporator and then as a legislator. Bala, as he was popularly called, was an efficient legislator– available to all and sundry. He was not a man of too many words, but his actions spoke for him. He was popular amongst the Muslim populace too, who valued Bala’s work. This is also one of the reasons why presence of an AIMIM candidate couldn’t attract as many Muslim votes

Reason 2: Trupti was a part of Bala Sawant’’s work machine 

Trupti worked with Bala Sawant in his office before he married her. She was known to Bala’s cadre and his voters. She was not an alien to Bandra East and its issues. Her campaign therefore was very focused and moved around in the lanes and by-lanes of the constituency.

Reason 3: Rane was an outsider. He may have been a heavyweight candidate, but he was still an outsider. Voters may know Rane, but they knew Trupti Sawant better. The key feature of Bala Sawant’s victories in Bandra east has been his easy accessibility, something that Rane could not promise.

Reason 4: Narayan Rane cannot wash away the traitor tag 

History has shown how Sainiks work with vengeance against all those who are tagged as traitors by the Thackeray family. Despite facing defeat, Sena worked relentlessly for years in Malwan, Rane’s stronghold in Konkan, before finally tasting the sweet fruits of victory. Almost all Sena rebels have faced the special hatred, even Raj Thackeray has been subjected to this. Rane had withstood it for long, but he had to face the traitor tag afresh in the constituency where his erstwhile political mentor Bal Thackeray lived for a long part of his life.

Reason 5:  Anti-incumbency against Congress is still quite strong 

It is almost one year since Congress was demolished in Maharashtra following a Modi wave. But the voter is still not willing to forgive the party that has ruled the state forever, barring a four and half years of Sena-BJP rule. True, there was no Modi wave in the campaign. But the Congress is still the same villain. Rane had to bear the cross of his party’s sins and he couldn’t walk with it.

So, is this the end of Rane, the politician?

Almost yes. Though they say you cannot write off anyone in politics, but given Rane’s shenanigans, he is most likely to shoot himself in the foot, alienating his party and supporters.