Tablets seen eating into desktop, laptop sales globally this year, but not in India

If the worldwide consumer electronics technology buying trends are any indication of which devices would be in demand in coming times then we may soon see tablets overtaking desktops and laptops.

This is what technology consulting firm Accenture has found in its recent survey, which shows consumer purchase rates for personal computers will decline 39% this year compared with last year.

On the hand, the survey of 8,000 respondents from eight countries, including India, reveals that buying rates for tablet computers will rise 160% and ebook readers 133%.

The survey also found that only 17% of respondents plan to buy a desktop or laptop computer in 2011. Tracking with this trend, the survey revealed that 75% of US respondents emailed each week from their PCs in 2010, down from 80% the year before.

The research showed that respondents were using multiple devices such as tablet PCs for activities that used to be done on traditional PCs.

For example, on at least a weekly basis, 40% of the respondents email from a tablet PC. In addition to checking email, respondents are using tablet PCs for browsing the web, watching videos and reading books, newspapers and magazines.

Does this imply that gadget freaks will give up PCs for newer technological devices like tablet and ebook reader?
Kumu Purim, senior executive, Accenture Electronics & High Tech Practise, said, “The research findings raise the question as to whether, in the long run, desktop and laptop PCs in the home will be replaced by newer technology such as tablet computers, netbooks, and ebook readers.”

While Accenture points to such a trend emerging in China and developed markets like US, Japan and others, industry experts and PC players in India do not see a similar shift happening any time soon in the domestic market.

Their view is borne out by technology research and advisory firm Gartner, whose latest forecast suggests local PC sales will grow 42% in 2011 compared with 2010.

“I don’t see PC sales falling in India,” said Mukund Walvekar, managing director of Acer. However, at the same time, he adds his company has started investing in the tablets to see that they don’t miss the bus. Acer recently launched Iconis A500 tablet.
Dell and Samsung have also got onto the tablet bandwagon by placing their tablets — Streak and Galaxy Tab, respectively - in the Indian market.

“The tablet PC will be the main gainer. But as the market expands, there will be a healthy growth in the sales of all products from laptops to tablets,” said Walvekar.

According to him, one of the reasons Indians may not take to tablets soon would be its high price. On this count, netbooks may emerge as a winner in 2011.

“Typically, a netbook would cost you anything upwards of `15,000. Tablets are more likely to burn a hole in your pocket with a price tag of anywhere between `30,000 and Rs 36,000 per unit. This (pricing) could restrict its (tablet) growth and make netbook the winner in 2011” said Walvekar.

An industry expert said demand for traditional PCs would continue to rise in the Indian market because it had yet to reach maturity.

“The maturity level of Indian PC market is still low compared to other global markets. Traditional PCs still have some more room to grow,” he said.

Absence of Apple’s iPad in the local market may also keep growth rate in the tablet segment low. Growth of tablets could also be stunted by its inability to perform many tasks that professionals use desktops and laptops for.

Typically, use of PCs can broadly be divided into two — one for content creation and other for content consumption. While netbook and laptops provide both, devices like the iPad are mainly catering to the latter — to read ebooks or browse the web, etc.

“Therefore, for the moment, they (tablets) will be used more to complement the PC or the laptop than as a primary device,” said Walvekar of Acer.

A senior executive from HP said; “tablets became a rage only after the iPad was introduced. The growth rate is only just starting but the user base is still low. Even today, sales of PCs remain the highest.” 

“Also, although the tablet market is growing fast, Indians are not yet too comfortable with touch-based devices. They prefer traditional methods like the keyboard. If at all, we will see the sales of tablet PCs and iPad increase significantly in the next two years,” he said.