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| Edited By: Vishwanath Nair |Source: DNA |Updated: Mar 18, 2018, 03:05 AM IST
Economic growth during the quarter ended March is expected to have trailed that during the previous quarter.
As per a median forecast of 11 economists polled by DNA, gross
domestic product (GDP) growth during Q4 is likely to come in at 8.1%, down a tad from 8.2% in the quarter ended December.
The government is expected to announce GDP data for the quarter on Tuesday.
GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year.
According to the economists, the risk during the quarter will be a slowdown in investments, while the manufacturing sector will further bring the GDP lower.
“Investment growth will be subdued due to high interest rates. Until or unless something major happens on the global level or the India level, we won’t be surprised on the policy side,” said Sujan Hajra, chief economist with Anand Rathi Financial Services.
Lower IIP numbers and adamant inflation too are seen slowing down GDP growth.
“Our analysis indicates that based on the industrial production numbers, the inflation rate and other sectoral factors, Q4 GDP rate will be slower than expected,” said Anis Chakravarty, director, Deloitte Haskins & Sells.
On the positive side, agriculture and services sector are seen giving strength to the GDP numbers.
“We think the GDP numbers will get strong support from agriculture and brilliant growth in services, though, manufacturing sector numbers will bring it lower,” said Shubhada Rao, economist, Yes Bank.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday put out the 15th round of survey of professional forecasters on macroeconomic indicators, suggesting the Q4 GDP will hover around 8.2%, below the earlier forecast of 8.5%. The survey put a downward revision on agriculture (3.1%) and industries (8.2%), while making an upward revision in the services sector (9.6%). The survey also predicted a 30.2% chance the wholesale price index inflation will fall to 7-7.9% by the fiscal end. The forecasters also saw repo and reverse repo rates revised upwards to 7.25% and 6.25%, respectively by March 2012.
