India speeds past China in first quarter vehicle growth

Auto sales may be slowing in India, but compared with many other developed markets, the growth rate in the country is still worth fighting over.

As per data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), at 18.2%, sales growth in passenger vehicles (cars, MPVs and SUVs) in the June quarter was the fastest in the world.

The US ranked second with a 14.4% growth, followed by Germany with 14.3% at third and China with 11% at the fourth position. Till last year, China led the global growth in this segment.

In commercial vehicles (CVs), China reported negative growth of 4% and slid to the eighth position whereas India rose to settle at the fourth position with 12.7% growth. India was ahead of France, Italy and Japan in CV growth during the June quarter.

But even as India’s global standing as a vehicle market improved, the domestic market was unable to absorb significantly higher sales.

Passenger vehicle sales grew just 9% in the first quarter against 33% in the year-ago period; two-wheeler sales were up 18% as against 26% in the same quarter last year; three-wheeler sales growth was down to a third at 5% as against 15%; and CV growth fell in multiples to 14% as against 55% in the first quarter of FY11. 

Even within the quarter, sales growth declined month on month for some product segments. Passenger vehicle sales growth fell from 14% in April to just 4% in June; two-wheeler sales growth was muted from 26% in April to 14% in June.

According to SIAM president Pawan Goenka, while it was clear that growth in the automobile industry was moderating, there was no indication so far of the possibility of the fiscal closing with negative growth overall. “We are projecting lower growth rates than earlier, but they are still in double digits. I don’t think a situation will arise when the industry growth will turn negative this fiscal.”

SIAM has revised its growth projections for FY12 downwards after the declining sales performance of most vehicle segments last quarter. As per fresh estimates, the automobile industry is expected to grow 11-13% (against 12-15% estimated earlier). The sharpest correction has been made in passenger cars, with sales now expected to grow 10-12% (down from an earlier forecast of 16-18%).

This, when sales growth till now has been just 7.3%.

Total commercial vehicle segment growth estimates are down to 12-14% from 14-16% earlier. Growth estimate in passenger buses has been halved to 4-6% since this segment remains unpredictable —- sales declined more than 6% in the first three months of this fiscal.

For two and three wheelers (goods), SIAM has made no changes in the growth rates.

Goenka pointed out the hardening interest rates and overall economic flash points (such as inflation) while saying these factors were contributing to a moderation in vehicle sales growth.

He said commodity prices —- steel down 3-4%, copper down 5%, natural rubber prices flat —- had not risen as expected in the June quarter so that price hikes in the current quarter may not be as steep as in Q1.