India can surpass US economy in three decades: Economist

India can emerge as the world's second largest economy by 2039, if it continues to grow at the rate of eight-nine per cent annually, says a senior economist. 

Former senior advisor and a director at The World Bank, Harinder Kohli said India's average per capita income would jump 22 times from $940 to $22,000 in 30 years from now. 

"India's footprint in the global economy will go to more than 17% in 2039 from less than two per cent in 2007," he said.

But he underlined that it can become a reality if the current economic growth momentum is sustained in the next three decades.

"It (India becoming the world's second largest economy and related indicators) could happen if things go well. That if all goes well." 

Kohli warned against India getting caught in the "middle income trap" similar to the experience of Mexico and Brazil.

This trap was explained as one when countries start stagnating  after reaching middle income levels and don't grow to advanced country levels. 

Countries getting into such a trap are unable to compete with low income, low wage economies in manufacturing exports and also unable to compete with advanced economies in high skill innovations.

At a Confederation of Indian Industry-organised session on "India 2039 "An Affluent Society in One Generation", he said when countries reach middle income group, they need to do a lot of adjustments, require a very different governance, education system, human resource needs and competitiveness, among others.

At that stage, India needs to improve the quality of its workforce and address issues such as inequality in terms of per capita income between different states, and start working on those matters now itself as it takes a long-time to produce results.

In addition, he said to meet its growing energy needs, India will have to tap hydro, nuclear and other renewable energy sources in a big way.

And also, India has to understand that it cannot do well economically, if its neighbourhood is not friendly. Failed states around it is not in India's interest, Kohli, who is currently president and CEO of Centennial Group, said.