FY10 GDP data tomorrow; economists sure of it topping 7.2%

The coming week may begin on a positive note, when the growth figures for the 2010 fiscal will be released on Monday, as most economists believe that the economy would have expanded higher than the official advance estimate of 7.2%.

     
As per the official estimate made before the year came to an end, FY10 GDP growth was forecast at 7.2%. And none of the economists PTI spoke to expect any lesser number, and, in fact, their forecasts touch as high as 7.5%.

    
For the fourth quarter, economists expect the economy to have grown anywhere between 8.7 and 9.3%. The government will unveil the GDP data on Monday morning.

    
"The fourth quarter GDP number is expected to surprise us positively due to a possible upside...it is likely to be printed at 9.3%," said Religare's Jay Shankar.

    
The first three quarters of the past fiscal grew by 6.1%, 7.9% and 6% in that order.

    
Shankar also expects a positive, marginal upward revision in the numbers for the other three quarters as well, which he said could move the FY10 GDP numbers closer to 7.5%.

     
The chief statistician Pronab Sen, too, had recently said FY10 would have grown by 7.2% to 7.5%.      
 

Rating agency Crisil chief economist Dharmakriti Joshi also had a better outlook than the advance estimates. "I expect 8.7% growth in the fourth quarter. And, for full the fiscal, I expect it to be 7.3%," Joshi said.

     
Chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu, too, had predicted the fourth quarter growth of over 8.6%, which will ensure FY10 growth over the official estimate of 7.2%.

    
Axis Bank economist Saugata Bhattacharya said, "the Q4 GDP growth is likely to be 8.8 per cent, and the full fiscal would have grown by 7.2%, same as what the government expects."

    
Economic growth slowed down to 6.7% in 2008-09 after over 9% growth in the previous three fiscals as it came under the impact of global financial crisis.

    
Government stimulus to the industry pushed growth to 7.9% in the second quarter of 2009-10, much higher than 6.1% in the first quarter. However, growth again slipped to 6% in the third quarter as agriculture production contracted by 2.8% and community, social and personal services slipped by 2.2%.

    
For the economy to grow by 7.2%, it must expand by over 8.5% in Q4, in case the figures for the previous quarters are retained.