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Nifty likely to stay in 5150-5475 band

Traders must exercise extreme caution on the long side and focus on capital protection.

Nifty likely to stay in 5150-5475 band

The markets witnessed a negative week as the Nifty and the Sensex weekly charts showed a violation of the previous weekly lows and a close in the lower end of the weekly spectrum. The traded volumes were expectedly lower on account of a shorter trading week.

The BSE & NSE weekly combined advance decline ratio was negative and stood at 7521 : 9412. The capitalisation of the same on a commensurate basis was positive as the figures were Rs 38,207 crore : Rs 33,544 crore. This indicates selling on the front line and retail buying.

The Nifty lost Rs 87,531 crore in market capitalisation on a week-on-week basis. The fall was led by banking and mid-cap stocks which took the hit on the chin, while the technology sector was the market outperformer.

Overseas investors were net buyers to the extent of Rs 1195.40 crore during the week and that saw the rupee closing at the 44.33 levels vis-a-vis the US dollar (previous week 44.28 levels).

The US markets saw a late sell-off even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a new 2010 high and managed to close with mild gains over the previous week. The Nasdaq Composite managed to outperform the old economy Dow Jones and implies a better relative strength in the domestic technology sector vis-a-vis the broader markets.

The UK FTSE underperformed the US markets and logged a bar reversal on the weekly charts. The Asian markets were a mixed bag as the Hong Kong and Japanese markets logged a weak performance whereas the Singapore benchmark logged gains, partly due to the SingDollar.

The domestic markets have seen a profit-taking bias erode the early optimism even as the weekly projected range between 5475 and 5225 held as the bulls managed to defend the 5225 levels, barely so.

This week is likely to witness a range of 5475 on the upside and the 5150 on declines. The bullish pivot will be at 5325 levels and the bearish pivot at 5290 levels. Traders need to exercise extreme caution on the long side and focus on capital protection as their primary objective in the coming week. Bottom fishing should not be resorted to, especially in the leverage segment.

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