Wars for water lie ahead, predicament dire for India

Perhaps the biggest danger that India faces in its quest for food security is the spectre of water supply.

This is because as India industrialises, it will need to allocate more and more water to industry — as has been the global trend. Currently, India allocates much of its water to agriculture.

But this may have to change either by making agriculture a bit more efficient in the use of water, and also trying to discover new sources of water, and the re-use of water through recycling.  One possibility is large-scale desalination where prices have fallen globally from under 5 paise a litre to under 2.5 paise.

Given India’s large shoreline and abundant sunshine, desalination costs could decline further.

But this only part of the story.  The other part is more frightening.  Look at the data of some of the countries that India will be competing with in the coming decades for its place in the sun.  As the table shows, India is a large country, but it has many people as well.  China, on the other hand, has a larger population, but it has a land-mass that is three times as big.  But while India has almost 10% of its surface area comprising water resources, China has just 3%.  In other words, China has more people, more land, but very little water. 

And this is where the problem originates.  More and more analysts are convinced that one reason why China annexed Tibet (China claims that Tibet was always part of its territory) was because the Brahmaputra, one of the three largest rivers in the world, originates from Tibet.

“No, it wasn’t for the minerals or the land.  It was for the water,” says a well-informed Sinologist.

As a result of the Tibet annexation, China now controls 1,700 km of the Yarlung Zangbo river, the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra.  The remainder of the 2,900 km river winds into India through Arunachal Pradesh and then through Bangladesh.  That, say experts, could be one more reason behind China eyeing parts of Arunachal Pradesh.

China needs water desperately, for its land, its people and for its industry. For starters, China has already completed feasibility studies for a major hydroelectricity dam at the Tsongpo Gorge to generate (from the Brahmaputra waters) over 40,000 mw annually, more than twice the output of Three Gorges.

Construction work began last year, and the dam is expected to be completed in five years’ time.

This could reduce the supply of water to India in much the same way as has happed to the water flowing into the Mekong river which has Vietnam’s farmers crying today.  China claims that the waters in the Mekong river have diminished to a 50 year low this year because of global warming, but has reportedly not given all the data on how much water was collected in its upstream dams.

True, the South Yunan area in China is facing a drought. 
But that is why the waters that flow into the Mekong are suspected to have been diverted. 

The Mekong (Dza Chu in Tibet, and Lang Xang in China) is the world’s 12th-longest river and the 7th-longest in Asia. Its estimated length is 4,350 km, and it drains an area of 795,000 square km, discharging 475 cubic km of water annually. Like the Brahmaputra, it originates from the Tibetan Plateau but runs through China’s Yunan province, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. All these areas except China and Burma belong to the Mekong River Commission.

But the Mekong crisis could be a mere teaser when compared to bigger water diversions from the Brahmaputra.  That would starve India and Bangladesh of their share of this river’s waters. Efforts are urgently needed to work out a water-sharing treaty among all the three countries.

Equally worrying are moves that China has been making to woo Nepal with its proposals for no-visa travel between the two countries, and the construction of more friendship roads and bridges in Nepal.  This has given rise to fears that China has begun eyeing the rivers that originate from Nepal - particularly the Kosi that is the biggest source of water for the Ganges.

The fact is that most of India’s North Indian rivers originate from Nepal.  Should that water get reduced, India’s Gangetic plains could face extremely tough times within the next two decades.  It could parch North India.  It would further exacerbate its food production capability.

This is a problem that has to be dealt with at the political level with extreme urgency.  The consequences for India and for its people could be severe.  It could become a matter of life and death. 

Literally.