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RBI actions might trigger profit sales

Nifty seen in 4825-5375 range this week.

RBI actions might trigger profit sales

The markets witnessed a bullish week as the bulls managed to trounce the bears. The benchmark indices managed to clock almost 3% gains on a week-on-week basis.

The traded volumes were lower as compared to the previous session, which is a negative indicator for an upthrust phase as it indicates skepticism at higher levels. The market breadth was mildly negative as the BSE and NSE combined advance decline ratio was 33261:33483.

The capitalisation of the breadth on a commensurate basis was positive as the BSE and NSE combined figures were Rs 43,120 crore: Rs 41,387 crore. The NSE gained Rs 1,03,357 crore in market capitalisation over the previous week. The technology sector was the noticeable outperformer during the week.

Overseas investors were net buyers to the extent of Rs 3,623.90 crore during the week and that saw the dollar end at the 45.50 levels vis-a-vis the rupee (previous week 45.43/$ levels). The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than the Nasdaq Composite Index and made a new 2010 high. The FTSE 100 underperformed the DJIA, but made a clear new 2010 high.

In the Asian region, the Singapore market outperformed its peers as the Hong Kong and Tokyo exchanges notched calibrated gains. The overseas cues seem to indicate a profit-taking bias on the domestic software sector.

The technical outlook for the domestic markets is that of caution as the indices are near their recent highs and the external trigger (RBI’s rate hikes) are likely to trigger off some profit sales this week.

The weekly range advocated last week between the 5200/ 5050 was overcome on the upsides as the markets witnessed optimism on the buy side.

This week is likely to witness a range of 5375 on advances and 4825 on declines. The bullish pivot for the week will be at the 5210 levels and the bearish pivot at the 5160 levels, below which the outlook will turn weak in the near term. Traders are advised to exercise caution on the long side.

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