India’s migrant workers & economy of their miseries

Narendra Modi’s war against black money has drawn to an unexciting close. Though it successfully paved the way for broadening India’s tax base, what is irking the proponents is the slow-paced migrant labour mobility. Numbers are still not available, but it is evident that the demonetization triggered an exodus of migrant workers from various job clusters across the country to rural India after economic activities in cash markets fell silent in last November. Now, even after generous measures by the government, the juggernaut has not started rolling and migrant labourers are yet to return to their respective places of work.

Take a look at labour migration trends since 2001, one can avow that Indians are increasingly on the move. Internal political borders may have impeded the flow of people, but languages barely raised any barrier. As per the latest Economic Survey, internal migration rates dipped in Maharashtra and surged in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, during 2001-11, reflecting the growing pull of southern states in India’s migration dynamics. While TN attracted 10.13 lakh migrant labourers during the 10-year period up to 2011, Kerala accounted for 9 lakh and Maharashtra, 5 lakh. MP, Bihar and UP, among others, recorded a mammoth out-migration, primarily owing to poor salaries, health facilities and lack of other infrastructure. The Survey also threw up a surprise: a huge flow of labour from Gujarat to Tamil Nadu.

Post 2011, there seems to be a new pattern emerging. Kerala is believed to have emerged the largest recipient of migrant workers. Of an estimated 40 lakh migrant workers in the state today, Ernakulam district tops the chart, a majority of whom are housed in Perumbavoor, a city known for timber trade. Demonetization has led to the closure of several units there, rendering thousands of workers jobless, forcing their return.

In Gujarat too, several job clusters where thousands of migrant workers—semi-skilled and unskilled – make their ends meet, have been in complete disarray. The once-thriving ship recycling market in Alang-Sosiya has seen closure of several units that used to demolish decommissioned ships. Thousands of migrant workers have left for their home towns by December-end, say ship recyclers.

The note ban had also hit several units in Morbi’s ceramic cluster, one of the largest in the world. These units used to employ around 4 lakh workers, mostly daily wage earners from Bihar, UP and Odisha. The scene in Surat, world’s largest diamond polishing hub, is no different, too.

Thousands of sewing machines in Tirupur’s garment units have fallen silent. While some units limp back to normalcy, several others remain shut.

The Budget 2017-18, which hiked MGNREGA allocation to Rs 48,000 crore and slashed corporate rate tax to 25% from 30% for smaller companies with annual turnover up to Rs 50 crore, has failed to kick start the migrant labour flow, so far.

The Labour Bureau is yet to come up with job creation numbers for October-December. One should not be surprised if the overall 2016 figure posts a negative growth, below the 1.35 lakh jobs created in 2015, the lowest in seven years. There is also a mounting fear that all those nationalist slogans may drown in the agony of job losses, especially in the ongoing elections in UP.

The writer is editor, DNA Money.
He tweets @AntoJoseph