Narendra Modi’s Japan visit: Will new inroads be made in Indo-Japanese strategic ties?

Analysing the previous government’s foreign policy​ in his recently published book, Sanjay Baru, media adviser to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, identifies forging closer economic and defense ties with Japan as the “only significant foreign policy achievement.” Despite the success story of India-Japan relations, signing a nuclear cooperation agreement with Japan, which remained on top of the negotiating table between the two governments, has remained unfinished. Now, the inconclusive agreement, vital for India’s energy security, has been passed over to the new government as a result of the regime change in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's five-day visit to Japan is likely to have a few of the old as well as some new agendas on the negotiating table during the interaction with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe. 

It may be noted that after undergoing several phases of ups and downs in their diplomatic relations, India and Japan have institutionalised a summit-level interaction at the prime ministerial level. Undoubtedly, this interaction that has taken place without any interruption since 2006 has transformed the bilateral relationship. Both the countries have identified a number of areas of interests in which they are cooperating mutually. This include trade, economics, infrastructure, security and defense and energy security. 

Japan has been eager to continue and intensify this complementary relationship with India and lost no time in extending an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Nonetheless, Modi chose to visit neighbouring countries like Bhutan and Nepal first. After rescheduling his Japan visit twice because of domestic engagements, Modi finally embarked on a five-day visit to the country on August 30. Japanese officials while announcing Modi's visit to the media stated that it is his “first full-fledged foreign trip as prime minister, excluding neighbouring countries.” The statement is a reflection of Japan’s sense of satisfaction that the Indian Prime Minister chose Japan as his “first” destination outside South Asia for a bilateral official visit.

Issues likely to dominate include the expansion of trade and economic ties, Foreign Direct Investment, cooperation in infrastructure sector; development of rail, road and port facilities as well as civil nuclear cooperation. Since some of the areas identified previously have not reached fruition, it would be a wise strategy for the present dispensation to carry forward the consultations on these issues and take it to a logical conclusion. In addition to the old agenda, new areas for India-Japan cooperation are also likely to be added during Prime Minister Modi’s visit. During the campaign trail for the 2014 general elections, Narendra Modi promised to build 100 new smart cities. Since Japan has an expertise in developing smart cities, Modi will hopefully invite Japanese entrepreneurs to invest in these projects to achieve his ambitious plan.

Another dream project likely to be discussed during this visit would be the introduction of high speed trains between key Indian cities. Since the present government wants an early introduction of bullet trains in India to showcase its development model, cooperation with Japan to introduce this technology is certainly going to be on the agenda during the visit. Both countries have also forged a strong relationship on security issues, especially in the maritime security field. However, this mechanism is not for dominating the Asian security theatre, but to cooperate with each other to help prevent conflicts. During this visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also discuss with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe new areas of security cooperation for the peace and security of the region. 

In addition, the nuclear cooperation agreement with Japan is vital for India’s energy security. Japanese companies are keen to make India their manufacturing hub, but they are shying away citing lack of availability of sustainable electricity supply. Keeping this in mind, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj ​pushed for an early conclusion of the nuclear accord while meeting her Japanese counterpart during the recently held ARF Foreign Ministers summit in Myanmar. As various experts have pointed out, India’s economic progress would depend upon achieving energy self-sufficiency. So it becomes vital to increase the share of nuclear energy in India’s total energy mix and for this, Japan’s cooperation is necessary. However, owing to Japanese concerns of selling nuclear technology abroad, it has been treading cautiously in signing the nuclear cooperation deal with India. In 2006, Japan had acknowledged that “a strong and prosperous India is in the interest of Japan”. Signing an accord to provide nuclear technology will not only help India sustain its growth and progress but will also help secure Japan's own “interest” and the interest of Japanese enterprises who want to invest in India.

Undoubtedly, Japan’s cooperation with India to improve infrastructure by providing loans and technology, including the metro rail system, has transformed India’s urban landscape. It is hoped that during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit, both the countries will be on the same page on several issues, including the nuclear agreement, that will lead to India’s energy security and make new inroads in the strategic ties between the two countries.

Dr. Shamshad A. Khan is Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.  He was a Visiting Research Fellow at the Slavic Research Centre, Hokkaido University (December 2010 to March 2011) and Institute for Developing Economies, Chiba (December 2012 to February 2013).

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of dna​