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| Edited By: Arghya Roy Chowdhury,Nirmalya Dutta |Source: DNA webdesk |Updated: Mar 09, 2017, 11:30 PM IST
If exit polls are anything to go by, then the BJP is surging ahead in four out five states. The only place they are losing is in Punjab where their alliance with SAD is on the verge of a wipeout. In UP, the polls predict that the BJP is winning between 164 and 210 seats. Meanwhile, in Punjab there’s a close fight between Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP and Captain Amarinder’s Congress. Punjab could prove to be a silver lining for Congress who are looking to return to the state after 10 years. On the other hand, Congress seem neck-to-neck with BJP in Uttarakhand, which isn’t cause for celebration because the saffron party barely existed there five years earlier.
In Goa, polls are projecting a BJP win even though it looks like they might not get the majority they needbut could be propped up by independents or a post poll alliance with BJP rebels. BJP will also look to return to power in Uttarakhand, with India Today and News 24 projecting a comfortable majority for the party, giving it 46-53 and 53 seats respectively, in the 70-member House, way more than the halfway mark of 30.
However, India TV gave 29 and 35 seats to the two parties.
India Today projected 18-22 seats for the BJP in 40-seat Goa assembly followed by the Congress with 9-13 seats. India TV predicted a hung assembly, projecting 15-21 seats for the BJP and 12-18 for the Congress. In the NDTV poll of polls, an average of several exit polls, the BJP was projected to win 179 seats, the SP-Congress 136 and the BSP 77 seats in the country's largest state. It forecast 55 seats for the Congress in Punjab, closely followed by the AAP with 54 seats. The incumbent Akali Dal-BJP alliance was predicted staring at a virtual decimation with only 7 seats in the 117-member assembly.
In Uttarakhand, it gave the BJP a majority with 43 seats followed by the ruling Congress with 23. In Manipur, it predicted a close fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP with the former getting 26 and the latter 24 in the 60-member assembly. Congress has been ruling the northeastern state for the last 15 years.
With inputs from PTI
India Today Axis Votes
BJP – 251-279
SP-Cong – 88-112
BSP - 28-42
Others - 6-16
ABP Exit Poll for Punjab
BJP-SAD – 17-27
Congress – 46-56
AAP – 36-46
ABP-CSGS Exit Polls for Uttarakhand
BJP – 34-42
Congress 23-29
Others 3-9
News 18-Graminar Projection for UP
BJP – 164
SP–Congress - 147
BSP – 81
Others – 11
UP Poll of Exit Polls
SP's Akhilesh Yadav says he hasn't ruled out an alliance with Mayawati's BSP.
Poll of Exit Polls - Punjab
India Today Axis Manipur Exit Polls (62)
BJP 16-22
Congress – 30-36
Others 3-5
While the others have said that the BJP is ahead in Manipur, the India Today Axis poll has broken ranks.
ABP CSDS Exit Poll for UP Elections 2017 (403)
BJP - 164-176
SP-Cong – 166-169
BSP – 60-72
Others 2-6
Note: The ABP poll is much closer between BJP and SP-Cong.
VDP Exit Polls
Punjab Seat Share ForeCast #Punjab2017
— VDPAssociates (@VDPAssociates) March 9, 2017
AAP-70
Congress-35
Akali Dal-7
BJP-3
Others-2 pic.twitter.com/h5NKoaeTxS
Meanwhile, one anchor known for his physical reflexes, jests that he was offered the Chief Ministerial post by three parties.
India Today Axis Poll
Goa Exit Poll (40)
BJP - 18-22
Congress - 9-13
AAP - 0-2
MGP-SS-GSM - 3-6
It seems like there's no anti-incumbency and the BJP is likely to retain power. Things don't look good for Congress.
So the big picture so far looks like BJP is ahead in 4 out of 5 states. It is all set to be the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh, according to most polls, falling slightly short of majority.
BJP is projected to also win or emerge as the single largest party in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
As for Punjab, it is a close fight between AAP and Congress. While Axis have predicted Congress to win, C Voter has projected an AAP victory. But in all the exit polls, vote share difference between AAP and Congress is very less within the margins of error. Thus it still looks like anybody's game in Punjab. SAD- BJP are all set to be wiped off Punjab's map in this election if exit poll numbers hold up.
Punjab Elections 2017 (117)
C-voter is predicting:
AAP – 59-67
Congress 41-49
SAD-BJP – 5-13
We did not see that coming
If Exit Polls are correct then it means that Hindutva with Namo have delivered four of the five states for BJP!!
— Subramanian Swamy (@Swamy39) March 9, 2017
According to exit poll of VDP Associates, BJP to win Goa.
Goa Seat Share ForeCast #GOA2017
— VDPAssociates (@VDPAssociates) March 9, 2017
BJP-21
Cong-9
AAP-3
Others-7 pic.twitter.com/vBpdhEtue5
Manipur Elections 2017
C-Voter Exit Polls
BJP - 25-31
Congress 17-23
Others 9-15
Just to recap, these are the OPINION polls from the following pollsters before the elections started.
Goa (40)
C-Voter
BJP - 15
Congress -14
AAP – 2
Others – 9
India Today Axis
BJP – 22-25
Congress – 12-14
AAP – 1-2
Others 1-5
Prudent Media
BJP- 17-18
Congress 12-13
AAP – 4-5
Others - 4-5
VDP Associates
BJP – 22
Congress 6
AAP 9
Others 2-3
Uttarakhand Voters Preference for next Chief Minister of State #UKD2017 pic.twitter.com/yh7wfXRcnf
— VDPAssociates (@VDPAssociates) March 9, 2017
Harish Rawat still retains his popularity but Congress seems to be on its way out.
Uttarakhand Seat Share #UKD2017
— VDPAssociates (@VDPAssociates) March 9, 2017
BJP-43%
Cong-36%
BSP-8%
Others-13% pic.twitter.com/SkCaViArWh
If these numbers hold up, expect a saffron wave in Uttarakhand.
#TCPoll #Uttarakhand Elections
— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) March 9, 2017
Seat Projection #BJP 53 ± 7 Seats #Congress 15 ± 7 Seats#Others 2 ± 2 Seatshttps://t.co/N5a4s4rt8e
#TCPoll # Uttarakhand Elections
— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) March 9, 2017
Vote Forecast
BJP 43% ± 3%
Congress 34% ± 3%
Others 23% ± 3%
For more info : https://t.co/N5a4s49SgG
Punjab Elections 2017 (News X-MRC Exit Polls)
Meanwhile News X is predicting a close battle in Punjab giving AAP and SAD-BJP 55 seats eatch and predicting 7 for SAD-BJP.
SAD-BJP - 07
Congress - 55
AAP - 55
Others - 00
#Decison2017: #NewsX-MRC—Punjab exit poll: SAD-BJP-07, Cong-55, AAP-55, Others-00@BDUTT @MD_Nalapat pic.twitter.com/AWx3xh60ew
— NewsX (@NewsX) March 9, 2017
According to C Voter exit poll, BJP likely to sweep Uttarakhand.
It may get 53. Congress may get 15 and others may only get 2.
On @NewsX exit polls give 185 for @BJP4UP . 120 for @yadavakhilesh plus & 90 for @BspUp2017 Join for our special analysis #Decision2017
— barkha dutt (@BDUTT) March 9, 2017
The News X exit polls are predicting
BJP - 185
SP-Cong - 120
BSP- 90
According to C Voter poll, Goa is likely to re-elect BJP.
It is predicting
BJP-15-21
Congress- 12-18
AAP-0-4
Others-2-8
So others can play a key role once the actual results come in, if this exit poll turns out to be true.
UP Elections 2017 Exit Polls
According to the Times Now VMR Exit Poll, the BJP has done fabulously in Uttar Pradesh. The poll claims that BJP will win 192-210 seats. Meanwhile, the SP-Congress will get 110-130 and BSP will end up with 57-74.
So to reiterate
BJP - 192-210
SP-Congress - 110-130
BSP - 57-74
The Punjab numbers are in. According to India Today- Axis Poll,
AAP to win 34% votes, Congress to get 36% votes and SAD-BJP to get only 17% votes.
Punjab (India Today- Axis Poll)
AAP- 42-51
Congress- 62-71
SAD-BJP- 4-7
Others-0-2
An in case you want to watch in Hindi, check out sister channel Zee News.
5 बजे से लगातार.#MahaExitPoll @ZeeNews @ZeeNewsHindi पर. pic.twitter.com/p03LVljqqT
— Rohit Sardana (@sardanarohit) March 9, 2017
A big shout out to our sister channel. Check out all the live coverage. Watch WION for the latest coverage.
Watch Exit polls special coverage with @kalyanishankar @sharadgupta1 @JaiveerShergill @PankajPachauri & @KamaIChenoy 5 Pm onwards on #WION pic.twitter.com/TaWBGYygX2
— WION (@WIONews) March 9, 2017
Political commentators are wondering if we are putting too much importance on state elections and trying to find hidden messages. Well, when the PM of the country campaigns in Varanasi for three days, it is evident how much importance the parties attach to these state elections.
Even as all the channels go boom boom, we must say we are missing one particularly animated anchor whose voice used to revert through the airwaves. We wonder what's he doing now? Is he screaming at an empty wall?
Exit poll results as per EC directive can only be published post 5.30 PM. So it's still some time to go for the numbers to kick in.
Exit polls work best where there is binary contest i.e two main parties are fighting. With Goa, Punjab and UP seeing three-way contest, it remains to be seen how accurate they are. Also often transferring projected vote share to seats is an exercise fraught with risk. So readers should focus more on the vote shares predicted than the exact numbers givem.
Early signs of nervousness?
The exit polls haven't even started yet and reactions have started pouring in. SP Ravidas Mehrotra believes that the alliance with SP reaped no benefits. He told ANI UP: "It is my personal view that Congress-SP alliance reaped no benefit for SP, it is only beneficial for Congress. Akhilesh could've formed govt alone. At many places Cong tried to defeat SP candidates,even if it meant victory for BJP."
But even the publication of exit poll, one channel had a tarrot card and jyotishi to predict the results. Well it is time for predictions, and who said only the psephologists and 'political pundits' have the right to make them.
The excitement is palpable. Exit polls are like trailer of movies. We don't know if the actual film will turn out like that or not! So with that healthy caution, let's wait for the exit polls to come in.
