dna Exclusive| Tamil Nadu Elections 2016: Congress aligning with a Dravidian party is not enough anymore for victory, says Karti Chidambaram

Campaigning for the upcoming elections in Tamil Nadu is in full swing and the parties have already announced their candidates for the May 16 polls. The Congress, which has formed an alliance with the DMK, has been allocated 41 seats and Karti Chidambaram does not figure in it. In an exclusive chat with dna, former Union Minister of Finance P Chidambaram’s son, talks about why he chose not to contest, Congress’ prospects and more. 

You’re not contesting in this year’s elections. Why have you decided to stay away?

I’m not staying away from the elections. In fact, I contested in the 2014 parliament elections. At this stage, considering my professional commitments, my temperament and overall situation and lifestyle, I think I’m not necessarily well-equipped to be a MLA right now. So I didn’t even seek a seat this time round. But that doesn’t mean I won’t contest future elections.

So will you be campaigning?

For sure I will campaign. There are friends who are contesting for the Congress and I will campaign for them definitely. There are also a few friends who are contesting in the alliance party so I may campaign for them too.

What do you think are the prospects for the Congress party this time round?

This time it’s not an easy election to predict. For the first time, we’re having a multi-cornered contest and proliferation of many parties has happened in Tamil Nadu. Before there were only two dominant political parties and there was the Congress party. It was easy to predict when the Congress aligned with one of the major parties. And that alliance was the clear winner. But that has changed now. I don’t think a Dravidian party and the Congress party alone is enough anymore.

There are other smaller parties who have become key players and we have to see who is affecting whom. But I still think the contest is between the two major Dravidian parties. Tamil Nadu politics till date is like the Coca Cola-Pepsi Cola war – they are the real dominant colas, everyone else is only a minor cola here. The real war is between the DMK and AIADMK like Pepsi and Coke and I think this elections too it’s the same. But in the other formations we have to see who is hurting whom. We need to see if the Third Front is taking away votes from the AIADMK or hurting the DMK.

If you look at the 2009 elections, in every constituency Vijayakant polled over a lakh of votes, but the DMK-Congress won the seat. He essentially took away AIADMK votes. The MDMK could take away some votes as can the breakaway Congress party and the PMK in the northern districts. It’s going to be tough contest this year but the contest will be between the DMK and the AIADMK. Everyone else will only be a spoiler. 

Why do you think the Congress has not been able to regain any foothold in the state?

I think it’s a systemic failure on the part of the Congress over the last five decades. This is a very presidential state. This is the first state which became presidential in its politics. You clearly need to identify a chief ministerial candidate and rally behind that candidate with the political formation. The Congress party has not been able to throw up a chief ministerial candidate acceptable not only to the party but acceptable to the public at large which the party can rally behind.

The DMK and AIADMK have consistently been able to do that. If you look at Tamil Nadu, in the last 50 years, we have had only four chief ministers – Annadurai, Kalaignar, MGR and Jayalalithaa. Everyone else has been CM by default or just for a few months. So the election is essentially about a political party rallying behind a dominant leader. The Congress has never had anyone who can match to the stature and charisma of the leaders thrown up by these other parties. Until we do that, we will always only be a bit player here in Tamil Nadu politics. Tamil Nadu politics clearly wants an identifiable chief ministerial candidate.  

What is your sense of who will win this year’s elections?

Obviously, I would want the DMK-Congress combine to win. That’s the natural tendency I have but as I said this will depend on many factors. People might say that past elections are not an indicator but I go by statistics. If you take the 2014 elections, it was a huge win for the AIADMK. And if you look at the data of 2009 and 2011, it’s going to be a close election. My political sense is that there’s an undercurrent of anti-incumbency. Whether we will be able to channel that properly and not dissipate it among the multiple parties remains to be seen. But looking at the campaigns, it is quite obvious that Chief Minister Jayalalithaa is a far more effective candidate as the leader of the opposition than when she is CM.

The AIADMK campaign is really not catching anyone’s imagination at the moment and it seems to be defensive and insipid. As an opposition leader, her campaign was a lot sharper. The DMK’s campaign - particularly Stalin’s campaign - seems to be reaching out more and is an ears-to-the-ground type of campaign. That seems to have more momentum particularly with younger voters who want to see visibility and proximity. If you take visibility and proximity as markers, I think Stalin will score way higher than Jayalalithaa. Even though Kalaignar Karunanidhi is projected as the chief ministerial candidate, it’s rather obvious that the leadership in that party is clearly gravitating towards Stalin thanks to his feet on the ground, ears to the ground campaign in this election. 

In the 2014 parliament elections, you became the second Congress candidate in the state to garner more than one lakh votes. Were you disappointed you lost?

I’ve been in active politics since 1996; I’ve run election campaigns for my father. I know statistics and data very well. I was absolutely sure that we will not be able to win any seat on our own and I was very clear about that from the beginning. There was no disappointment at all.

I needed to make a point in the last elections that I’m not shy from contesting elections. Normally, there is a clamour for people to seek tickets when Congress is part of a large alliance but we had no alliance partner. I just wanted to stand up and be counted and I thought I did reasonably well. I stood second after Kanyakumari in terms of votes. It was quite gratifying. I think this accusation that I’m afraid of contesting elections has been buried forever.