Will they breach a male bastion?

Wn  current political climate, it is no longer possible to distinguish Islamic radicals from Islamic moderates. Despite official boasting about the country’s diverse population and commitment to pluralism, Islam and the government have essentially merged.

We have to first consider if there is something like a female vote bank in India. Women have all along in India voted along the same lines as men except during elections which carry more emotional quotient.

Women in the north, for instance, voted in favour of the Janata Party in 1977 because they were angered by how the opposition had been tortured during the Emergency.  After the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, there was definitely a massive pro-Rajiv wave, and this was more so among women.

The increase in the number of seats the Congress garnered after the assassination is attributed mostly to women. Surveys conducted following the 1999 Kargil conflict have shown that middle class urban women had pushed a pro-BJP swing. There was also the 1998 Delhi Assembly election when Sheila Dixit first came to power riding the anger - again more among women - over the rise in onion prices.

But the women’s reservation bill that the UPA is now pushing through with the active support of the BJP and the Left is not going to pay them dividends in the claim and blame game. The bill was initiated by the United Front government, it was taken further by the NDA and finally found life in the UPA II regime. So who can really claim ownership to it? And who can be discredited for prolonging its non-implementation, apart from the Yadavs?

When initially reservations were declared in panchayat seats, the decision was greeted with a lot of ridicule, not the least by the media. They would talk of sarpanch patis, women who took the reins on behalf of their husbands. Then the second term came and some of the derision died down because a few success stories had emerged. Now if you look around, there are any number of examples of women sarpanches and their achievements.

Any revolutionary pro-female idea is bound to find resistance in the Indian polity. This is as true of politicians as it is of other classes. But if I am sceptical about how far this bill will ensure greater participation of women in politics, it is for one reason. It allows reservation, but on a rotational basis for 15 years. One third of the seats in the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies will be reserved each general election. Essentially, every one of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha will compulsorily go to a woman once in this period.

But that also means there will be two terms when there will be no reservation in a seat in this period of 15 years.

So, here is why this bill will not bring about the earth-shattering change it is promising: If I am a male sitting MP and my seat is delimited and goes to women, then I will ensure that my wife gets elected to the same seat and then, when it reverts to the general category, I can grab it back.

This, however, has not happened in panchayat elections in a big way because the reservations are at a micro level - a certain number of seats in the panchayat are reserved for women - and have had a permanent impact.. In fact, you are increasingly hearing of women sarpanches divorcing their husbands because they are refusing to play shadow puppets. If a woman panchayat member is efficient, she is bound to be re-elected, and merit counts seriously whatever your family background.

But with the women’s reservation bill for Parliament and the assemblies, in its current form, the chances are that a woman will mostly be a proxy candidate for a sitting MP for the intervening term when he cannot contest for the seat. This will defeat the purpose of the bill.