All is not well with the bill

The way the Women’s Reservation bill was passed in the Rajya Sabha, one might think that barring some protest, there is a great deal of support for it amongst Indian parliamentarians, cutting across party lines.

But now with protests coming from the BJP members in the Lok Sabha and the Yadav trio openly against it, it may not be easy for the government to push this bill through the Lok Sabha.

When the bill is introduced in the Lok Sabha, it is likely that the parties will issue a whip and get the bill passed by the required two-thirds majority. But if they do not, and members are allowed to cast a secret vote on this issue, the bill will most likely be opposed by a large number of the male members cutting across party lines. Those who will support the bill are only too aware that when their seats are reserved for women, they will be able to keep their constituency in safe custody for themselves only by nominating biwi, beti or bahu from their constituencies.

This political jagir will be eventually returned to him.
There is a clear divide within the Janata Dal (United) over the issue: Sharad Yadav is opposed to the bill while Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, heading the JD (U)-BJP coalition government in Bihar supports it. Clearly, Nitish Kumar cannot oppose this bill since he is the one who first introduced 50% reservation for women in panchayat elections.

BJP members in the Lok Sabha have already raised their voice against the bill — they did so when it was introduced in the lower house. At the moment there are no voices of protest in the Congress camp, but it would be wrong to assume that there is no opposition to this bill within the Congress. With Sonia Gandhi at the helm of affairs, most Congressmen do not have the courage to openly oppose the bill but I am sure that when it is introduced in the Lok Sabha we will hear some of these voices.

The bill, once implemented, would effectively result in the reservation of 55.5 per cent of the seats in Parliament and  legislative assemblies (15 per cent for Dalits, 7.5 per cent for ST and 33 per cent for women). The representation of Muslims both in Parliament (between 5-6 per cent in the Lok Sabha compared to the 13 per cent share in the total population) and state assemblies has been low and this bill may push the numbers down further.

Similarly, with political mobilisation by parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar and the Samajwadi Party in UP — especially after the implementation of the Mandal Commission Report — the representation of leaders from Other Backward Castes in the Lok Sabha has increased over the last elections (from 12 per cent in the first Lok Sabha to 30 per cent in 2004). But this too is likely to see a fall if this bill goes through.

The bill if implemented would also impact operational politics in various constituencies. Since the seats reserved for women would be rotated after every election using a system of lottery, once elected, a woman representative would have the chance of contesting from the same constituency once in 15 years, assuming she would like to contest from the same seat again. While she would be free to contest from the same seat even if is unreserved, it is almost certain that she would not like to contest against a male candidate.

Under these circumstances, will these elected representatives have the motivation to work for their constituency?