Decoded: Rahul Gandhi's Houdini act may be a political masterstroke

Just a day before all important budget session of the Parliament, news broke that Rahul Gandhi had gone for a sabbatical. This piece of trivia literally broke the internet, with memes and jokes about the boy wander's surprise leave flooding social media. Congress leaders were left scurrying to explain that the party VP had not 'run away' and had merely taken leave to reflect on the current state of affairs.

While curiosity about whether Rahul is in Uttarakhand or UK still continues unabated, there is news that the Gandhi scion may soon be elevated as the party President. Which in a way begs the question whether this has been a calculated ploy from Rahul from the beginning to put pressure on the top leadership (read Sonia Gandhi) to hasten his elevation to the Congress throne. 

In a way, Rahul may just be engineering a 'blooodless coup' to ease off the old guard of Congress, almost similar to that done by his grandmother Indira Gandhi in 1969, when she actually took the audacious step of splitting the party. But the question is why Rahul Gandhi, who once famously said 'power is poison' would suddenly be interested in getting back at the helm of affairs. A series of events may have hastened this move. 

Being de-facto head is not helping: 

Since the time Rahul was elevated as VP, he has been the de-facto head of the Congress party. As the Jayanti letter bomb suggested, he has also been a key ideologue in matters of policy implementation. But without direct control, he never could execute his plans properly. His vision for the nation never came to fruition, a view frequently echoed by his close aides . Sometimes there has been a huge communication gap between government and his ideas, none so explicitly manifested than the Ordinance row over convicted politicians. But Rahul was hounded for every debacle the party suffered. So he may have finally decided to shed the tag of being a perennial understudy to Sonia Gandhi and take care of the mantle himself. 

Democritisation of Congress: 

This has been a very long standing plan of young Gandhi. While it may sound counterintuitive coming from a person well enshrined in dynasty politics, Rahul has always tried to encourage democratisation of the party in his limited ways. He has tried to do so by conducting elections for NSUI and other branch organisations. He has advocated for US style primaries to chose the first among equals while distributing tickets. But some leaders in the top echelons have never warmed up to his grandiose plans, rejecting them as impractical and not suited to Indian politics. This change of guard may be Rahul's way of taking control away from some veterans, many of whom are well past their political sell by date. It will also give some of his top aides a relatively free run in their own respective states. 

One power centre: 

As Digvijay Singh said, two power centres in the party has confused the cadres. He has also subtly hinted at lack of coordination between the Gandhis. As UPA-2 showed, dual power centres specially when the chips are down is potent formula for catastrophe. The Congress party is currently going through its lowest trough in its 125 year history. Honestly, what better time for a  complete rehaul than this? 

Testing his position  in Congress 

Rahul Gandhi's leadership has been questioned, not only outside Congress but even within it.  A tactical retreat from the point of action well may be Rahul's way of assessing who his real friends are. Vote of confidence from large section of the party will not only strengthen Rahul's hand but also give him confidence to pick his own team in the future. 

The AAP factor- Politically and Socially 

If anything, AAP has all the potential to become Congress 2.0. A left-liberal party, with its inclusive agenda lends itself to be an easy replacement to the grand old party as Delhi showed. While this may not happen everywhere mainly due to lack of local level leadership and organisation of AAP, the looming threat for Congress can't be denied. Rahul's elevation to the top post may well stop AAP's juggernaut, not only by taking some media glare away from it but also by desisting ground workers in different states from deserting the party. 

Also, if one looks closely, AAP's socio-economic stance is very close to what Rahul envisions for India. Infact AAP ideologue Yogendra Yadav was part of NAC. While many believed after the 2014 elections that politics of subsidies and freebies may have become outdated, the Delhi verdict shows that BSP (Bijli-Sadak- Pani) still remains the core issue facing the electorate. It just needs to be packaged with generous dollops of selling the dream to be a nouveau-middle class. Hence AAP's success may well have catapulted Rahul to take the political plunge in a proper way, once for all.  

An Indian Express report says that from May Rahul has just been to the party HQ 6 times. Rahul has attended only a couple of important meetings. In many ways he has been a recluse, perhaps licking his wounds rattled after the catastrophic defeat. 

In January 2014, Rahul had the chance to directly pit himself against Modi. He decided to make a retreat, giving Modi a free pass to the power throne in India. This time he again has a chance to rebuild the party from scratch. For which he may plan to check-mate his detractors in the party first (which will be the easier part) and then rebuild credibility of his party and himself. He may succeed or fail, but the reluctant politician may have finally shed his inhibitions to take a dip in the murky waters of Indian politics.