Will Dragon outrun the Elephant?

China and India have been battling for Asian domination on many fronts. As China celebrates 60 years of communist rule, the emergency of these two global players is assuming greater significance.

India is poised for growth, universally rated as a rapidly growing economic power in Asia, second only to China. We have the potential to become a force to be reckoned with in the next decade or two.

On one hand, as large developing countries on the high-growth curve, India and China share many things in common. On the issues of energy and the environment, a close collaboration between the two is essential. At the same time, however, there are concerns of contention between the two for supremacy in Asia.

Henry Kissinger said, “India lives in a tough neighbourhood.” Among India’s neighbours, Pakistan has been the greatest challenge to India diplomacy, right from the days of its independence. The peace process between the two countries has been derailed as a result of cross-border terrorism.

While the situation exterior to India is precarious, internally, corruption, which is widespread, seems to be eroding the very fabric of the nation. Ranked a dismal 72 out 179 countries, corruption is rampant at all levels of the administration, bureaucracy and politics, taking the form of bribes, tax evasion, exchange controls, embezzlement etc.

A study conducted by Transparency International India in 2005 found that more than 50 per cent of people had first-hand experience in paying bribes or using influence to get a job done in a public office. Bribery and corruption are so rife that they are endemic. The reason for the persistent corruption in dealing with the government is habitual; the people are almost programmed to grease palms.

Let us take the example of infrastructure, which the Indian government recognises as its greatest hurdle to growth. Though the administration plans to spend a staggering  $150 billion on infrastructure between 2005 and 2101, bringing electrification and telecommunication to rural doorsteps, it is brutally true that the quality of infrastructure will suffer on account of corrupt practices in the selection of contractors. The actual spending will be far less than that projected, a substantive amount going towards feeding the middlemen.

The terror attacks in Mumbai, targeting foreigners and Israelis, have caused widespread outcry and outrage. Suspicion is being cast on the lack of transparency and foolproof homeland security processes, coastal land and sea protection mechanisms.

On the other hand China, symbolised by the dragon is on a roll. Be it being proactive on global security issues or its military modernisation for economic growth, the dragon is evolving. China has, however, also to deal with its share of government corruption and autocracy of military rulers.

Notwithstanding the exemplary stories of the India’s success as the world’s fastest growing free-market democracy or the euphoria of the cheapest space mission to the moon, the elephant can realise its full potential and run only after it successfully deals with the burdens of its neighbourhood challenges and the internal malice of corruption, through a new morally upright leadership.

 Otherwise, the elephant can only hope to lumber and slowly move ahead. As columnist Gurucharan Das aptly puts it, “It will never have speed, but will always have stamina.”