A chance to forge ties in steel with Afghanistan

The Hajigak iron ore deposits near Bamiyan in Afghanistan are one of the largest in the world with an estimated 1.8 to 2 billion tonnes of high-grade ore, enough to feed a steel plant 10 million tonnes per annum for a century. The Afghan government has been looking for someone to mine them and had sought international bids last year.

A turning point in India’s stake in Afghanistan was reached when a consortium of Indian companies, backed and aided by the government, put in a bid for the mines and possibly steel plants in that dangerous, war-torn country.

This was at a time when the continuance of America and its allies is uncertain beyond 2014, and the region is likely to witness a new phase of the ‘great game’ in which India is expected to play a larger part. With a reduced role for the US and its allies, Afghanistan is going to seethe once again as a battleground not only for tribal rivalries, but between neighbors like Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia and India.

The Afghan government has been looking for partners to exploit the country’s rich mineral resources for several years but has only found one taker so far. The Beijing-based Metallurical Corp. of China won the license to mine Afghanistan’s biggest copper deposits at Aynak in 2007. This will give it a much greater role, and together with Pakistan, could allow Beijing to dominate the region.
Pakistan’s role has been to aid and abet the Taliban. The US, being unable to tame the Taliban despite having 110,000 troops and spending $115 billion every year in Afghanistan, is in a spot. Domestic support for the war is also declining.  An opinion poll, published recently by the Washington Post reveals that a record 60% of Americans now believe the war is not worth fighting.

The changing view of the American establishment comes out starkly in an article in Foreign Affairs by Robert Blackwill, a senior foreign policy analyst and former US ambassador to India. Titled ‘Plan B in Afghanistan’, Blackwill argues that a de facto partition of Afghanistan is the least bad option. The article, which has also been carried in condensed form by some Indian newspapers, says, “Washington should accept that the Taliban will inevitably control most of the Pashtun south and east… a de facto partition offers the best available alternative to strategic defeat…

Washington would concentrate its efforts on defending the areas in the north and west of Afghanistan not dominated by the Pashtuns.”

The Indian foreign policy establishment is aware that the new perspective changes the equations in the neighbourhood. Though Indian aid of $1.3 billion to build roads, power lines, a dam, provide buses and build the new Afghan parliament, etc have won it much support among the Afghan people, all this goodwill could be lost if a Pakistan-backed Taliban  moves in to control the Pashtun heartland.

Backed by the strong economic interest of China in the Aynak copper mine, the China-Pakistan axis would undermine our influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan, by its proxy control of the south and the east, and China by the economic clout it would wield. 

Clearly India has to be prepared for such an eventuality. While any kind of armed intervention should be ruled out, we cannot afford to desert a long time friend either. Luckily, the Hajigak, mining bid provides just such a chance.

Merely to take out the iron ore in a typical colonial way would not do. What is needed is an integrated approach that would involve building a railway, one or more steel plants, generating employment within the country by having ancillary steel units and workshops, and creating vast employment potential by building and maintaining roads and truck transportation.

It would go a long way in moving the Afghan economy from drugs and guns. Sensibly handled, China need not only be a rival but could share a partnership in the development of Afghanistan since both Asian powers have an interest in a stable region. 

Even Pakistan could have something to gain. At present it has only one integrated steel plant near Karachi and the total annual steel production in that country is under 5 million tonnes versus a consumption of over 8 million tonnes. It is the closest market for steel from Afghanistan.

Given the difficulties in Afghanistan, such a scenario might seem utopian. But it offers a good chance, if ever there is one, of restoring peace to a troubled land.