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| Edited By: Arghya Roy Chowdhury |Source: DNA webdesk |Updated: Apr 25, 2016, 08:18 AM IST
With electorates already having decided the fate of candidates in more than half of the state's constituencies, the West Bengal elections have now entered an intriguing juncture. To use a cricketing parlance, phase four of the elections is like a batting powerplay for the TMC. The North 24 Parganas and Howrah districts are going to polls and, based on past performance, the TMC is expected to do very well in these 49 seats.
A strong performance is the need of the hour for beleaguered Mamata's outfit, which has now been hit by the photoshopping controversy, in an unending series of embarrassments that have greatly tarnished the party's image in the run-up to the polls. A solid performance in this phase will be a great morale booster for the party to finish strongly in the last two phases.
On the other hand, the Congress-Left alliance will try to punch above their weight in this phase. They are bolstered by the positive feedback they have received from the ground in the last three phases, combined with the activity of Election Commission, which has ensured that the ruling party's polling machinery is on a tight leash.
If we look at the last two elections in the state, North 24 Parganas and Howrah was a field of lush green for the ruling party. It had been complete domination for the TMC, a testament to their solid organisation, connect with rural voters and the general apathy of the voters for the Left.
North 24 Parganas
| Party | TMC | Congress | CPI(M) | BJP |
| Seats | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Howrah
| Party | TMC | Congress | CPI(M) | BJP |
| Seats | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Out of 33 constituencies in North 24 Parganas, TMC won 28 and Congress in one. BJP won their solitary seat in the by-election. In Howrah, TMC won 15 out of the 16 seats. The Congress and TMC fought together in 2011. The result shows that in the rural belt, the Left cut an extremely sorry face post the fiasco in Nandigram and Singur. Mamata Banerjee reaped a rich harvest of her fight against 'forceful' land acquisition.
North 24 Parganas
| Party | TMC | Congress | CPI(M) | BJP |
| Seats | 28 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Howrah
| Party | TMC | Congress | CPI(M) | BJP |
| Seats | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rahul Gandhi addressing a rally in support of the Left and Congress candidates. Source: PTI
The TMC had a clean sweep in Howrah. In North 24 Parganas too, the TMC was ahead in 28 assembly constituencies, same as in 2014. The Left was ahead in two and the BJP, buoyed by the Modi wave, was ahead in three.
Now let's see look at the scenario in the case of a Congress-Left alliance, assuming the votes are fully transferred from one party to another.
North 24 Parganas
| Party | TMC | Alliance | BJP |
| Seat | 29 | 3 | 1 |
Howrah
| Party | TMC | Alliance | BJP |
| Seat | 16 | 0 | 0 |
The TMC would have actually won one more seat in North 24 Parganas and still had a clean sweep in Howrah. The TMC has been so dominant in these constituencies that the joint might of the Left and the Congress wouldn't have perturbed them much.
Mamata Banerjee with Amit Mitra. Source: PTI
In North 24 Parganas, the Motuya community is firmly supporting the TMC, which makes the party a frontrunner in the seats reserved for SC. In the industrial belt, the lack of industry remains a big cause of concern and whether the disenchanted workers are in a mood to give the TMC another chance may decide the course of the election. The proliferation of the syndicate system is a major headache in constituencies in and around Kolkata, in places like Baranagar, Dum Dum, Rajarhat and Bidhannagar. In his election speeches, PM Modi too prominently highlighted the issue.
Similarly in Howrah, the industrial logjam is a legacy issue which the TMC has inherited. It has provided no answer to solve the puzzle so far. From Bally to Shibpur, there is a virtual stagnancy in industrial development. Whether it will be reflected in EVM, though, is another matter.
Modi with BJP leaders, including Rupa Ganguly. Source: PTI
In the rural belt, there is reasonable satisfaction with the work done so far by the Mamata government. Hence, the party is likely to enjoy pro-incumbency there. The opposition will hope that the Saradha scam is a factor in this phase since a large number of poor people from both these districts invested in the Ponzi scheme. Scam tainted ex-minister Madan Mitra is also contesting in this phase.Giving him a ticket is an indication that Mamata Banerjee thinks the Sarada scam is unlikely to influence voting patterns.
They are expected to sweep the two districts, but will they? The party is riddled with internal strife. It is more or less assured of repeating its past performance in the rural belt, owing to sound mechanism and some good work done by the Mamata government. But in the city and the suburban belt, the party is almost certainly going to lose some seats due to the negative perception propagated by the string of controversies, from the Saradha scam to the Narada sting. Didi experimented a little bit, going for celebrity candidates in some of the urban seats to offset the anti-incumbency mood. Overall, Mamata Banerjee is hoping to bank on her goodwill to get TMC over the rope in this phase.
Congress is a virtual non-entity in these two districts. Hence, almost the entire onus will be on the Left to seize back some initiative. The Left had earlier been a prolific organisation in the rural belt of South Bengal, which has been appropriated by the TMC. Five years after being ousted from power, the Left is still grappling with getting back its footing in the rural constituencies and is likely to have the going tough.
Left rally in North 24 Parganas. Source: PTI
In the urban pockets, though, especially in the industrial zone, the party has slowly clawed its way back. Many voters are depressed with the blatant crony capitalist culture propagated by the ruling party. There is a general sense of the situation spiralling out of control propagated by largely negative media reports. Hence, it may just give CPI(M) and its allies the opening they desperately seek. So one can expect a Left resurgence. But their well-laid planning may be marred by the saffron equation.
There are few seats in North 24 Parganas where BJP will fancy its chances. It is tipped to win 2-3 seats there. In Howrah (North), Rupa Ganguly has added a celebrity flavour to the mix. But the party is unlikely to hold on to its vote share from 2014 as the Modi wave has ebbed. The party which gets the incremental votes of those who earlier supported the lotus is likely to hold an edge in the three-way contests.
All in all, TMC won 43 out of the 49 seats last time. It may not hold on to that impressive number, but if they can notch something between 35-40, Mamata Banerjee's path to re-election on May 19 will be made significantly smoother.
