UP Elections 2017: BJP looks to gain momentum in Phase 4

 53 Assembly constituencies spanning across 7 districts of Bundelkhand and five districts of lower Doab region goes to polls on Thursday. This is a crucial phase for  SP and Congress before the polling caravan reaches Eastern UP, where BJP is expected to dominate. The districts voting on Thursday are Rae Bareli, Pratapgarh,  Kaushambi, Allahabad, Jalaun, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Mahoba, Banda, Hamirpur, Chitrakoot and Fatehpur.

In 2012, the SP won 24 and Congress got 6 seats out of 53. Together they had nearly 42% of the vote share. But in 2014, the equation completely changed with a rare  united Hindu vote backing BJP to the hilt. The party was ahead in 37 assembly segments, Congress in 7 and SP only in 5 seats. To put things in perspective, BJP had won  only 5 of those 53 seats in 2012. BSP's entire votebank virtually collapsed. But  2017, may have a different story to tell. There is a significant Dalit population in both Doab  and Bundelkhand, and the BSP buoyed by ground report from the earlier phases will try their best to improve their performance. 

But the entire discourse surrounding that elections have radically changed in the last few days. PM Modi accused SP of playing vote-bank politics and said that samshan and kabristan should both get electricity, alluding to differential treatment for people from different religions. Amit Shah even said that laptops are given to youth based on their caste and religion. 

The opposition believes that it is a ploy by top BJP leaders to polarise the voters to ensure a 2014 like situation. On the other  side of the spectrum, both SP and BSP are looking to aggressively woo the Muslim votes. While Akhilesh has warned that BSP may join BJP post polls, Mayawati is going all out to ensure maximum minority votes are for her party. It is becoming aptly clear that all parties are looking to appeal along religious lines overtly or covertly  despite strict SC verdict. 

Despite efforts by successive governments, there hasn't been much improvement in conditions of poor farmers in water-scarce Bundelkhand. Neither much have been done to give a fillip to industries in this mineral rich belt. BJP has made it a major election issue and PM Modi in one of his rallies promised to change Bundelkhand's fate like that of Kutch. 

With high anti-incumbency feeling among the masses, there is good chance that people may be inclined to respond positively to BJP's overtures. The party has also gone  big to campaign in Allahabad where it has no MLAs , with Amit Shah doing a roadshow on last day. Gandhi family bastion of Rae Bareli is also up for grabs.  While Sonia Gandhi hasn't campaigned, Rahul and Priyanka worked hard to protect their fortress. But in many constituencies, SP rebels may play a spoilsport. 

Overall, the BJP alongside its ally Apna Dal which will bring the much-needed Kurmi votes will look to poll above 30%, which may be enough to pick up many seats in a  classical triangular contest. For BSP, Bundelkhand is a case of restoring past authority. Congress- SP is most likely to shed some seats from their 2012 tally, but  they will look to minimise the losses. The party which gets the sprinkle of hope in water ravaged Bundelkhand may finally end up getting the throne of Lucknow.