Sudip Bandyopadhyay arrested: Why it will lead to all-out war between TMC and BJP

"I can’t believe that they have arrested Sudip." Mamata Banerjee’s first reaction after news that TMC Parliamentary party chief Sudip Bandyopadhyay was arrested on Tuesday in connection with the Rs 17,000 crore Rose Valley scam was telling in itself. She couldn’t believe that CBI in just a matter of few hours arrested one of TMC’s senior-most member.

Mamata Banerjee’s words were a precursor to what has ensued so far. The TMC youth wing 'spontaneously' attacked the BJP HQ in Central Kolkata, injuring 17 in the process. RAF had to be deployed to ensure that the situation doesn’t get out of hand. The anger is palpable and simmering on the ground, as TMC cadres and leaders believe the BJP government is using CBI to settle political scores. Sporadic reports of violence targetted at BJP leaders and party offices have been reported all through the day from across the state.  

But this is not the first time a senior TMC leader has been arrested by the CBI. Earlier, the likes of Kunal Bose, Madan Mitra have been caught in connection with the Saradha scam, Mukul Roy has been extensively questioned. MP Tapas Paul was arrested recently. But none of it elicited such volatile reactions from the ranks and files of Didi’s party. The answer probably lies in the nature of politician Sudip Bandyopadhyay. Sudip, who started his political career as a youth Congress functionary, was a founding member of the All India Trinamool Congress. He left TMC after falling out with Didi in 2004, only to get back in the party fold in 2008 when Mamata’s stock had again started to rise. He became Union Minister of state in 2011.

Over the years, Sudip Bandyopadhyay has been widely seen as a mild-mannered, largely non-corrupt person- a stereotype of the Bengali bhadrolok. At least in the public eye, he is not a dabang politician wielding shady deals. He is an MP from Kolkata North - the hub of the intellectual Bengali, and Bandyopadhyay, though not exactly a suave and erudite politician, has managed to build an aura around him. Hence his arrest comes as a surprise to many, particularly the ground level workers of the party. Whether Sudip is guilty or not, only a probe can tell, but to many, his arrest is the proverbial redline the Modi government has breached in dealing with Mamata Banerjee and her party.The bugle for an all-out-war has been sounded and there is no looking back. 

TMC workers protesting against BJP (AFP)

It will be naïve to think that the CBI's actions, especially such swift and stringent ones, happen without sanction from the top echelons of political leadership. The CBI over the years, irrespective of the political regime in power, has been used as a convenient tool to blackmail opposition leaders, keep dissenting allies under control. It’s the failsafe card every party has played over the years, so much so the SC in 2013 slammed CBI calling it a caged parrot. CBI’s proactive role in the Rose Valley scam has to be looked at in this context.

As journalist Rajdeep Sardesai said: "When TMC was backing NDA on GST, didn't hear a word on chit fund cases; now, TMC takes on centre on demonetisation, 2 MPs arrested!!"

But this kind of challenge is exactly what Mamata Banerjee feeds on, where she can play the victim card conveniently and convincingly. Expect massive protests in the coming days across Bengal and in any other states where TMC can wield influence in alliance with their new found political allies like SP and AAP. Mamata Banerjee’s veiled threat that she can also play the arrest game may not be exactly a docile one. Didi can be ruthless and retributions can come swiftly and from unexpected quarters. The BJP-TMC bonhomie from the days of thw GST bill being passed seems to be chapters from history now. Any other further arrest will only add fuel to the fire and expect TMC to not pretend about calling for the fireman. 

As far as BJP is concerned, its chief goal in Bengal is to occupy the space of the main opposition party. With the Congress disintegrated and the Left lacking enthusiasm and popular support, BJP has the golden chance to finally crack the Bengal puzzle. Mamata Banerjee’s angry rhetoric against Modi has already made BJP the most-talked about opposition in Bengal.

It is time for them to work on the ground organisation to take on TMC when the panchayat votes take place next year. But it needs to be cautious about overplaying its hand by using the CBI card too often. Mamata Banerjee, like decades of Bengali politicians in the past, can easily make it seem like an effort by Delhi to overthrow a state government, to impose its will. And she may actually get popular support by harping that line of political attack. Hence, the arrest of a leader like Sudip Bandyopadhyay can backfire for PM Modi’s party if it becomes a norm rather than an exception. As for Didi, it is back to drawing board time for strategising her next move. Will she go for a tactical retreat to loosen the albatross of multiple chitfund scams, or like the firebrand leader she is known to be, will go out all guns blazing. Whatever the case may be, Bengal politics is surely in for exciting times.