Punjab Elections 2017: AAP might be ahead, but the race is still open

In 2012, virtually all pre-election opinion polls suggested that the Badals would be ousted from power. But when the results came, SAD literally had the last laugh with the Badals and their ally BJP overcoming an anti-incumbency wave to get elected. In 2017, this is the only consoling factor for Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal - that they are capable of proving the political pundits wrong. But in reality, fighting anti-incumbency of 10 years, infighting, allegations of worsening law and order situation and no grip over the alarming drug situation, the Badals are in a tricky wicket. The only batsman who can bail them out with aggressive hitting is PM Modi, who still has the charisma to sway votes especially of the urban youth. 

But what makes this year's Punjab elections, a true delight for political observers and a nightmare for psephologists is the entry of the third pole in Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). For AAP, Punjab was never a high-priority state before 2014. So while Kejriwal riding high on his credible performance in the 2013 Assembly elections, put up candidates in 400 odd seats, its primary focus was in the Hindi heartlands of the North. But blunted by the BJP sweep, AAP candidates, including Kejriwal, flopped spectacularly. However, Punjab had a different tale to tell. In a stunning debut, AAP won 4 seats in Punjab. It was a combination of the people's collective disenchantment with the Badal government, along with a strong local presence of some of the AAP leaders and Brand Kejriwal exerting its presence in certain pockets. A truly organic movement led to AAP's surge in Punjab.

AAP supporters in Amritsar. Photo: PTI

From then, the party has dug in its heels in the state with frequent visits from the top leadership. It has posed itself as a strong alternative to the Congress and SAD-BJP. Pitching to rejuvenate farming and industry in Punjab, and pledging to make the state free of drugs, AAP has certainly come as a new hope for a large section of the population. However, infighting, allegations of fostering the Khalistani movement and ambiguity regarding its CM face has taken some sheen away from AAP's appeal as an anti-corruption crusader and being a wind of change. But opinion polls show AAP being in the pole position to form the next government in the state. It has made inroads in strong Akali belts in rural Punjab. All it needs to do is get its supporters to vote en-masse on 4 February. 

But Captain Amarinder Singh can turn out to be a party pooper for the jhaadu brigade. Fighting his last election (self declared), the veteran captain first slayed demons inside his own party (read Partap Singh Bajwa) and now emboldened with Rahul Gandhi's blessings, is crisscrossing the whole state looking for one last hurrah. He is trying to exploit the anti-incumbency of the Badals, and of AAP lacking a credible CM face. But with Congress in a downward slide across the country, for Amarinder Singh, the challenge is to not only to beat his opponents but to change the momentum too. He has a shot in the arm with the inclusion of Navjot Singh Sidhu just days ahead of the elections and Manprit Badal, who incidentally fought separately in 2012, splitting the anti-Badal votes. 

Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sidhu. Photo: PTI

The three major regions of Punjab are Majha, Doaba and Malwa. For now, AAP seems to be comfortably ahead in Malwa (69). Hence, political pundits are putting their bets on the new entrant. But with 117 seats, the story of Punjab is much beyond Malwa and the victory margin is likely to be extremely thin in many constituencies. Last time, the Akali- BJP combine won comfortably with just 1 percent more vote. So, expect contests to go down to the wire and outfits like Apna Punjab Party (APP) led by former AAP leader Chottepur, may hurt Kejriwal's party's prospects. 

Drug abuse, the sacrilege issue, failing economy and law and order will be top on voter minds on 4 February. Whichever party or alliance wins, it will be a seminal moment in Punjab politics. A Congress win can rejuvenate its future nationally, AAP's triumph will give it its first big state to launch a national campaign, and an unlikely SAD-BJP victory can effectively eliminate all oppositions. Let the best one win!