Gujarat Elections 2017 Phase 2 : Can PM Modi's late aggression save BJP's day in North and Central Gujarat?

One fatal gaffe. Another clandestine meeting. All it took for the discourse in Gujarat elections to change completely. For the last two months, Congress has been the aggressor. From lack of Patidar quota, to distress in automobile hub in Sanand, from lack of post-flood relief to alleged Dalit atrocities, Congress was pounding on the questions and BJP already reeling from two decades of anti-incumbency was woefully short of answer. But all that changed with PM Modi raking the issue of Pak allegedly trying to make Ahmed Patel the CM and also using the neech-aadmi jibe to hilt. It certainly changed the mood and discourse of the campaign, despite all efforts of Congress. 

Will it work on the ground? It will be only known on 18th, but if it does, BJP should certainly be benefited in Central Gujarat. There are 40 seats in play in the districts of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahal, Dahod and Chhota Udaipur. BJP won 22 of the 40 seats last time around. But its seats have tapered since 2002, when the party did incredibly well after communal polarisation. Central Gujarat has been a traditional pocketborough of Congress but this time, several factors are against them. With Shanker Sinh Vaghela staying away, Congress is missing a real big face. Another high-profile exit from Congress is of Amul chairman Ramsinh Parmar. The BJP with its current stranglehold in milk dairy unions is looking to make major headways in Anand and Kheda. It's sitting pretty to do well in Vadodara. Hardik Patel's PAAS hasn't really made much inroads in Central Gujarat and is likely to be a minor factor. Congress has been the traditional beneficiary of tribal votes in Gujarat. However, BJP with help of RSS and VHP has made powerful efforts to reach out to them. The tribal vote may well be the decisive factor in districts like Panchmahal, Dahod and Chhota Udaipur. 

(Rahul Gandhi in Anand-PTI)

While Central Gujarat equation lies in a delicate balance, it is completely a riot in North Gujarat, with multiple factors at play. Mehsana is the epicentre of Patel agitation, from where it spread to the entire state like a volcano. Incidentally, it is the home district of PM Modi. Hence it is a battle of titans in Mehsana. Leading BJP's charge there is none other than state Deputy CM Nitin Patel. But he has his work cut out with Hardik Patel's soaring popularity among the youth. Even though Patel is barred from entering the district, his rallies in neighbouring Patan have made BJP anxious. 53 seats are there in six North Gujarat districts of  Banaskantha, Patan, Sabarkantha, Mehsana, Gandhinagar and Aravalli. BJP won 32 out of 53 last time around and virtually swept in 2014 general elections. But the party is almost reconciled to some losses in North Gujarat with Hardik Patel effect extremely pronounced. But what may stop a complete rout for BJP is some self-goals from Congress and its allies. Alpesh Thakor's poor seat selection has given BJP some lease of life. In total, there are 23 seats in North Gujarat where Thakor community has significant clout. 

(Hardik Patel campaigning in Ahmedabad- PTI)

Thakor and Patels are the most influential caste groups in North Gujarat. BJP is hoping to split the Patel vote and also to prop-up other prominent social groups in some seats. It is repeat of the UP experiment by Amit Shah and in tune with it, party has given tickets to Kolis, Prajapatis etc. Tribal vote is key in North too, with they being a key player in 13 seats. 

With nearly 13 rebels in fray, Congress runs the risk of losing out in close seats. Also the ghost of Congress MLAs going away from Banaskantha during peak floods is haunting them. Congress ally Jignesh Mevani hasn't exactly got the  momentum he hoped for. Mevani allegedly taking donation from under-scanner PFI has only added to his headache. Rahul Gandhi though has aggressively campaigned, trying to mock the Gujarat model at a time when the state's industrial juggernaut is showing some signs of slowdown. 

(PM Modi supporters thronging in large numbers-PTI)

Whether Hardik's ground game can match BJP's potent organisation may well be the deciding factor in North Gujarat. But what may be the biggest factor in this election is still the master orator NaMo. Can Gujaratis afford to ignore his emotional appeal of giving a befitting reply to those who 'insult' him. Will emotion trump over hard-logic and ground situation. We will know soon.