End of Advani's political career? 4 talking points from SC's 'criminal conspiracy' order on Babri demolition

The two-member SC bench on Wednesday decided to restore the charge of criminal conspiracy against LK Advani and other senior BJP leaders in the Babri Masjid demolition case.  The apex court, fully aware that the matter has dragged on for too long, said the trial must be completed within two years by the Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court. It has passed specific directions so that no party can resort to delaying techniques. SC has said the trial judge of Lucknow "shall not be transferred" till conclusion and delivery of judgement in the sensational case.

It also said that no party shall be granted adjournment without the sessions judge being satisfied of the reasons for it. It also directed the probe agency CBI to ensure that prosecution witnesses appear on each and every date for recording of evidence in the case. Trial will start within four weeks. It needs to be remembered that case against Advani, MM Joshi, Uma Bharti and other leaders were already going on in Rae Bareli court based on an FIR filed post demolition. Now, the SC has essentially merged both the cases (something Advani’s counsel vigorously opposed) and has added the provision of section 120B of IPC (criminal conspiracy) thereby upturning an Allahabad HC judgment from 2010. Allahabad HC in 2010 had upheld special court’s 2003 verdict of dropping 120b against Advani and other top leaders. But now with fresh SC verdict, the albatross is firmly tied to the neck of perhaps one of India’s most well-known politician. 

CBI had charge-sheeted Advani and 20 others under sections 153A (promoting enmity between classes), 153B (imputations, assertions prejudicial to national integration) and 505 (false statements, rumours etc circulated with the intent to cause mutiny or disturb public peace) of the IPC.It had subsequently invoked charges under section 120B (criminal conspiracy) of IPC which was quashed by the special court whose decision was upheld by the high court.

Now let us look at the political implication of today’s SC verdict.

1) Is this the end of road for LK Advani?

According to many political pundits and BJP sources, LK Advani was the frontrunner for the post of President, elections for which are due in a couple of months. Much of BJP’s success is owing to the legwork done by Advani and Vajpayee. Unlike the 'Aam Aadmis' of today, the BJP leaders of yore painstakingly built the pillars of the party from scratch, the fruits of which are now enjoyed by Modi and co. The rath yatra which culminated in the unfortunate demolition of the Babri mosque became one of the seminal points of Indian political history. It catapulted BJP from an-also ran to a major competitor of Congress, and finally Vajpayee becoming the PM.

Advani, as they say, in modern-day parlance, “Took one for the team”. Vajpayee, with a much more liberal image, was favoured by the allies. In 2005, Advani tried to makeover his image which ended in a catastrophic disaster after claiming Jinnah was secular, that too in Pakistan. He was stripped off the party presidency but he again clawed back to the top, just by dint of his effectiveness inside BJP’s set-up.

Advani got his moment under the sun in 2009, when he was NDA’s PM candidate. But with UPA government riding high after the farmer loan waiver and Indo-US nuclear deal, the Gujarati strongman and BJP lost steam badly to concede the elections. It virtually faced a wash-out in urban pockets of India. It would take multiple scams, sustained social media campaign and a talismanic leader in Narendra Modi to come to centre-stage for BJP to again revive its fortune. Bitter after losing the intra-party power war, Advani would have probably liked a lavish retirement home like Raisina Hills as his parting shot in Indian politics. 

But with the latest SC order, it’s unlikely that PM Modi or others will actively push for his name. Under the constitution, the president has immunity against any criminal proceedings. Upon a normal and grammatical representation, it means no one can initiate proceedings against President of India. But when DNA spoke to senior lawyers, they were of the opinion that law is silent on the point about what happens if a person against whom proceedings have started become the President. 

However, it looks a long shot that Modi will allow himself to be up for open attack from foes and allies by nominating a person, against whom criminal charges are being framed. Earlier the Justice Liberhan Commission in its report had indicted LK Adavni and other BJP leaders for their role during the Babri Masjid demolition. The report which was tabled by the Manmohan Singh government in the Parliament will also be now brought back from the deep freezer by the opposition to put pressure on BJP and Advani. In such circumstances, nominating Advani as the candidate will be fraught with huge political baggage. So for all practical purposes, LK Advani may have already played his last innings in public life. Whether he has any further ignominy to face will only be known once the trial starts. 

2) What happens to Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh? 

Uma Bharti, currently part of Union Cabinet has rejected demands for her resignation and even Jaitley has ruled it out.  In a hurriedly called press conference, firebrand Bharti decided to brazen it out and said she is willing to go to jail for the country. But can PM Modi keep her in the cabinet if an FIR is filed against the minister. It will be certainly a case of impropriety, and make the government a seating duck in face of the opposition’s tirade.  

Similarly, Kalyan Singh has been given immunity till the time he is the Governor of Rajasthan. Will the Modi government ask him to resign and face the law or will it allow the former UP CM to use his high constitutional position to get immunity.  At a time, when Modi is trying to project an image of being Caesar’s wife, this will be a test case of following up on his words. BJP will have to take a call between the political cost it will accrue by sticking to its leaders who are facing charges and the voice of its loyal base - which may encourage it to back them to the hilt. 

3) CBI’s stature gets a fillip:

For a long time, the CBI has been accused of being co-opted by the party in power, so much so the SC took a swipe at the investigative agency dubbing it as ‘caged parrot’ during the UPA rule. Not much has changed since then, and CBI is often alleged to being merely an instrument of the government to arm-twist its political adversaries. But CBI’s role in the Babri demolition case will certainly change the perception to an extent. Despite being under the MHA, CBI actively pursued the case to ensure section 120B is added to the charges against Advani and others. To give some perspective, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh hails from UP and former Home Minister LK Advani is his political mentor. Yet CBI did what it was mandated to do. 

4) Effect on 2019 elections

According to SC order, Lucknow bench of Allahabad HC has to finish the trial within two years. It implies that the verdict will be delivered merely months before the next general election. One way or other, political parties will try to leverage it to their advantage. In an increasingly polarised discourse, the verdict can further inflame passions. It’s hard to predict the exact nature and extent of fallout of the verdict from now, but expect it to become a big talking point in the run-up to the next general elections. 

Ram Mandir in Ayodhya may or may not be built ever, but politicians will continue to leverage it till the penny drops. With 25 years and counting, justice has certainly been delayed in this case. SC has promised that justice wouldn’t be denied.  The ramifications of the elusive verdict (as and when it comes) will be felt far and wide, and may become as much significant as the act of demolition of the mosque itself. 

With PTI inputs