7 reasons which led to Congress debacle in Karnataka

The comprehensive trends are in and people of Karnataka have again decided to boot out the ruling regime, something they have been doing since 1985. Contrary to media reports and prediction from pollsters, Siddaramaiah failed to hold on to his bastion. Outgoing Karnataka CM even lost from one of the two seats he contested. So, what gives this dramatic Congress downfall in a state which they expected to win or at least emerge as the single largest party. 

1. Siddaramaiah's Lingayat gamble backfires spectacularly

This is probably one of the biggest takeaway from the election that a sensitive issue shouldn't be handled in a hurried, ham-handed manner just before the polls. Siddaramaiah played devious politics by granting Lingayat's minority status just months before the elections. It hoped to breach into BJP's traditional support base among Lingayats. What happened in reality is a massive tsunami of support for the saffron outfit among the Lingayat community with the saffron party is poised to win over 70% of all the Lingayat-dominated seats. 

2. Congress had no answer to farmers' distress

In Karnataka, 3515 farmers have committed suicide between 2013-2017, according to state government data. This was made a pivotal issue by BJP in the polls. The worst hit were farmers of Central Karnataka where the Congress has only managed 11 of 35 seats in the offing. The state government had no coherent plan to address this agrarian crisis. It tried to pin blame on Centre on Mahadayi and Cauvery water issue, but clearly it didn't work on the ground. 

3. Siddaramaiah's AHINDA strategy came cropper: 

Siddaramaiah thought he could ciunter the Vokkaliga wave in South Karnataka by using his AHINDA (minorities, backward castes and Dalits) strategy. However, his strategy lead to a polarisation of non-Kuruba OBCs who felt left out. BJP also managed to cobble support of the SC Left community (Madigas). In parts of South Karnataka, the traditionally quarrelling Vokkaligas and Lingayats have come together to punish Congress, reducing them to only 16 seats out of 51 there. BJP's prominent Tribal leader Sriramulu belonging to Nayaka community managed to forge a bond with Dalit community ensuring the party win in  Dalit-dominated constituencies in Hyderabad Karnataka . Siddaramaiah's dream of being a master of caste coalition ultimately fell short.

4. Losing the perception game in Coastal Karnataka:

Coastal Karnataka with a long history of heated communal strife was ripe for polarisation and the larger Sangh Parivar managed to do it to the hilt. Siddaramaiah despite his best effort couldn't stop BJP in its tracks. The death of around 20-odd BJP workers and the recent death of Paresh Mesta became one of the keypoints of BJP's campaign rhetoric lead by firebrand leaders like Yogi Adityanath, Shobha Karandalje,Ananth Hegde etc in the region. BJP has managed to win 18 of the 21 seats in the Coastal Karnataka.  BJP similarly swept in Mumbai-Karnataka, another place where people moved over caste lines to show their patronage to the saffron outfit. 

5. Giving ticket to 90% of sitting Congress MLAs was gigantic mistake: 

Congress gave tickets to 107 out of 122 sitting MLAs, thus exposing themselves to a massive local level anti-incumbency. Karnataka is a state which has traditionally flipped other way in successive polls. To counter that, the need of the hour was to bring in new faces, especially in areas where BJP has strong base. Siddaramaiah believed his personal goodwill would be enough to get his MLAs elected, but the electorate clearly had other ideas. 

6. Kannada pride cause found no takers: 

Siddaramaiah played the card of Kannada pride by introducing the state flag, calling PM Modi as North Indian, outraging about Centre's attempt at Hindi imposition. But end of day, it didn't manage to impress neither the BJP voters nor the undecided who were happy to see saffron party end their southern drought. 

7. PM Modi managed to hijack the campaign agenda:

A big part of any campaign is essentially about ensuring that the party is in control of the message. Congress lead by Siddaramaiah did it for the longest time, till PM Modi arrived in the battlefield in the business end. From then, it was about Congress going into defensive trying to reply to PM Modi's jibes. It wavered attention from Congress performance of 5 years, and made it to a binary choice between a namdaar and kamdaar, as BJP wanted it to be. Congress fell for BJP's well laid trap. Despite getting almost same votes as BJP, the party lost out owing to inferior election strategy. 

Siddaramaiah tried his best, but he just got bested by the Shah-Modi duo who had a superior skin in the game. However, with a solid vote base still supporting, Congres lives to fight on another day.