Victors yes, but just not the victory to relish or cherish

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala has won 72 seats in a House of 140 but, ironically, there is greater excitement in the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) than in the UDF. Never before in the state’s electoral history had a ruling coalition given its principal challenger a run for its money. On the other hand, the Congress leaders were stunned by the results, which have put paid to their ambition to rule the state with a comfortable majority.

Though the UDF expected Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan’s spirited campaign, harping on his ability to send senior UDF leader R. Balakrishna Pillai to jail and the revelations made by Muslim League leader P.K. Kunhalikutty’s former aide and relative K.A. Rauf about his “master’s” involvement in a sex scandal to have an effect, it had not bargained for the setback it suffered.

The results show that the UDF has not been able to sustain the tempo of victory it established in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 panchayat and municipal elections. It is true that the LDF lost 30 seats it had won in 2006, but few see the Front’s defeat in this light. This is because the voters have the well-established tradition of voting out the ruling coalition at the first available opportunity.

For the Congress nothing matters more than power but today’s victory does not bring the kind of power it relishes. With just 38 seats, the party does not even enjoy the status of a big brother in the UDF. In the House, the status of the largest party goes to the CPM, which has 45 members. What is more worrisome for the Congress is the greater bargaining power of its allies.

Though Kunhalikutty’s alleged involvement in the sex scandal cost the UDF heavily, it did not at all affect the fortunes of the Muslim League, which recorded the best performance in the elections, winning 20 seats out of the 24 it contested. The third largest constituent in the UDF is the Kerala Congress, which has in the past converted political bargaining into a fine art.

The last time the UDF formed a government 10 years ago, it adopted a formula under which single-member parties were not given ministerial berths but this time it cannot afford to deny a Cabinet berth to such “stalwarts” as K.B. Ganesh Kumar and T.M. Jacob. The margin of victory is so wafer-thin that every MLA has enough bargaining power to demand the spoils of office.
CM-aspirant Oommen Chandy, who has already taken “responsibility” for the unsatisfactory performance of the alliance, would be under great pressure to accommodate all interest groups. KPCC President Ramesh Chennithala, who had a major say in the allotment of seats, is also a contender for the post, while former KPCC chief K. Muralidharan would not be satisfied with any portfolio.

AJ Philip is the editor and publisher  of The Herald of India