Once the slide begins, it is difficult to stop

Little is going right for the Congress. It is not just the scams that are tumbling out without let. The party’s efforts at damage control have lacked the usual savvy that it displayed in the past - be it on 2G, the ISRO-Devas allocations, or the appointment of PJ Thomas as CVC.

Its various steps — Ashok Chavan and A Raja’s resignations, and now the possibility of a JPC on the 2G scam — have not stemmed the downslide.

Worse, for the first time in almost seven years, the PM is directly in the line of fire and his “clean” image, which made him a favourite with the urban middle class, has taken a beating.

With the PM’s image besmirched and with Rahul Gandhi showing no inclination to take over the reins of government — or the party — several senior leaders are positioning themselves in the event that a vacancy is created.

Experience has taught us that exposés usually take place when the powerful fall out with each other. The unanswered question today is whether the attack is being orchestrated more from within the party than without to get the PM to quit.

A beleaguered Congress is banking on the elections in five states to turn the corner. With the BJP having little at stake in these states, the Congress believes it can wrest the psychological advantage if it comes out tops.

It has the benefit of anti-incumbency in Kerala and West Bengal, where it hopes to gain alongside Mamata Banerji. In Assam, it hopes to return to power following talks between the Centre and ULFA and in the absence AGP and BJP unity.

Yet, the moot question is how badly will the loss of its popularity hurt its prospects in these states?  Even if constituency-level issues dominate state elections, “national” issues, particularly those that create outrage, would surely have some impact on voter
choices.

The biggest loss may be in Tamil Nadu; Congress leaders concede the situation is far from rosy. But the Congress is unlikely to dump the declining DMK simply because the latter’s 18 MPs provide crucial support to the UPA coalition.

The Congress does not want a situation where it has to depend on Mulayam Singh or Mayawati, particularly with UP elections due next year.

The Congress’ primary aim is to safeguard its government at the Centre; it may calculate that a DMK defeat in Tamil Nadu may make the Dravidian party more pliant in Delhi.

Sonia Gandhi has already moved into a more proactive mode.
She seems to have agreed to a JPC to try and turn the tables on the opposition, despite her memories of the Bofors JPC.

Then, the boycott of its findings by opposition MPs and their en masse resignations weeks before the general elections made Bofors the central issue in the 1989 polls and dethroned the Rajiv Gandhi’s government.

She is also seeking to bring smaller regional parties into the Congress fold. She hastened the merger of the Praja Rajyam Party in AP while Rahul Gandhi is wooing DMDK leader Vijay Kant as a potential future ally. The Congress is also looking at tie-ups with smaller groups in Uttar Pradesh.

Most important, Sonia Gandhi is again trying to make a strong “aam admi” pitch to win back the now eroded popular support. She is believed to have written to Pranab Mukherji making a case for the outlay of several lakh crores in the Union Budget for food security and for existing and new pro-poor schemes.

But from all accounts, it has not found favour with the finance minister or the prime minister who see the proposals as “freebies” and are more concerned about balancing the Budget. The Union Budget will reveal the outcome of this tussle.

Interestingly, in what is seen as a sign of her dissatisfaction with her existing managers, Sonia Gandhi has pulled out ace “crisis manager” Ghulam Nabi Azad to troubleshoot for her again in Tamil Nadu, Aandhra Pradesh and in Parliament.

He is playing the role of parliamentary affairs minister without being so designated.

The growing disillusionment with the Congress has weakened the party and intensified the pulls and pressures within. In politics, it is difficult to break the fall once the downslide starts. The Congress today is on a slippery slope.

The writer is a commentator on political and social issues