Even Priyanka can't arrest Congress decline

Vasant Sathe has stirred a small storm. Quitting his hobby horse of a presidential system for India, he now suggests Priyanka Gandhi would be a better bet than Rahul. He thinks Rahul Gandhi’s “parachute politics” (he skips the phrase but indirectly alludes to it) won’t restore Congress to its old glory and a mass-contact programme is required with Priyanka leading it.
Does Vasant Sathe correctly assess Priyanka’s capability to raise the Congress party to new heights? This writer thinks not, even assuming Priyanka gains the reins of the party, which seems currently far-fetched.

To be sure, there is considerable conviction among Congress party managers in Delhi of Priyanka Gandhi’s capacity to transform the organisation. On admittedly thin evidence, comparisons are made between Priyanka and her late grandmother (whose sartorial style she emulates, if you notice), Indira Gandhi. This writer is guilty of initiating that comparison years ago on still thinner evidence.

It is not clear if a section of Congress managers are rooting for Priyanka Gandhi for her perceived intrinsic political strengths or because of desperation flowing from the indisputable failure of Rahul. The joke in the Congress party apropos Rahul Gandhi is, “Mere paas maa hai.” His political tutors in the party have long written him off.

But Rahul Gandhi’s biggest supporter remains his mother, Sonia. Sonia Gandhi shed her silence to back her son on his disastrous Bhatta-Parsaul campaign, where Rahul alleged the Mayawati government’s hand in a 1977 Belchi-like massacre. The fact that Rahul Gandhi is in politics and not Priyanka (except for her election campaigns for her mother and brother) tells its own story. It will take a lot to change this script, and it will be idle and unfair to speculate how, when and why that will become possible, if at all.

But if Vasant Sathe’s hopes and desires do come true, don’t believe that Priyanka Gandhi carries any magic wand to boost the fortunes of the Congress party. Yes, for a time, a year or two, her novelty may sway the picture, as it happened when Rahul stepped into politics. But his failure will add to her pressure to succeed, and the country is going to give her less time to prove herself.

Her biggest problem, however, may be that the country has less and less time for the Nehru-Gandhis. Experts speak of India’s rise in an external context, but that rise has been prompted internally, and that has produced its own effects on politics. India’s middle class is more powerful, more demanding, and more impatient than ever before. Its new heroes are, among others, Anna Hazare and the yoga guru, Baba Ramdev. Ramdev’s satyagraha from next month against political corruption and black money has given the Congress-led Central government huge jitters.

And more fundamentally, India is becoming a classical federation with stronger states and a diminished Centre. So infirm is prime minister Manmohan Singh (for other reasons as well) that some chief ministers arguably command more real powers than him. The recent assembly election results have further strengthened regionalism and coalition politics and weakened the hands of mainstream parties, chief of them the Congress.

Also, scuppering Priyanka Gandhi’s chance of outright success is the competition she will face from scions of other political dynasties. The late YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s son is challenging Rahul/Sonia Gandhi to take him on in Andhra Pradesh, where disaster looms for the Congress. In state after state, dynasts or powerful independent chief ministers are rising at the cost of the Congress, even as all dynastic parties face revulsion of the electorate. The Congress party can crow about its victorious alliance in Kerala, but it got fewer seats than the CPI-M, and the real hero of that election was an octogenarian non-dynast, VS Achuthanandan.

The writing on the wall is clear for all but diehards like Vasant Sathe to see, which is that dynastic parties are sinking ships. In particular, the Nehru-Gandhis are fading stars. Neither Rahul nor Priyanka Gandhi will be able to raise the Congress’ fortunes in the long-term. Indeed, the continuation of dynastic traditions will mean death for the Congress party.