A fragile Pakistan may turn to be more dangerous for India

There can’t be any disagreement with Union home minister P Chidambaram’s understanding that the “country was situated in the world’s most troubled neighbourhood”. The Mumbai terrorist attack amply demonstrated the tenacity of terrorists to carry out an odious attack inside India.

The terrorist’s capability to keep India hostage for days together during the 26/11 carnage was also facilitated by the sluggish response of the security apparatus in the country. Certainly terrorism in the country is rooted in the ‘most troubled neighbourhood’: Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Some of the strands of the terrorism can also be traced to home-grown terror networks, a hard reality that can’t be overlooked. In the last two decades, Kashmir has exported much of the terror activity to India. Trouble in Kashmir is far from over. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has further deepened; increasingly it seems that this region may descend into chaos, eventually proving Chidambaram’s assertion correct that India is “surrounded by extremely fragile” governments.

Terror networks in the country still feel aggrieved enough to strike. In this backdrop, a terrorist act (or, for that matter, repeated acts) of Mumbai magnitude is a real possibility.  The Union home ministry is alarmed at the possibility of a terrorist attack. After terrorists were able to run amuck inside Pakistan’s naval base, the government has ordered a “security audit of all vital installations, including nuclear stations, oil refineries and military bases”.

The attack on Mumbai had jolted the security agencies. After the clumsy handling of 26/11, it is expected that they will be better prepared to neutralise any serious terrorist threat in future.

Despite being forewarned of an imminent terrorist threat, America, with all its superior resources, could not thwart 9/11. Being better prepared is no guarantee that desperate terrorists will not be able to manipulate the gaps. Particularly when the destructive elements, either by effectively disguising themselves as in case of David Headley — who would have thought a white American was on a deadly prowl — or by exploiting alienated sections of the population, find refuge within the civilians. It is impossible to comb a country with a population of more than a billion.         

Terrorists are loose cannons; the ideologically driven are determined to create mayhem inside India. The likes of the Taliban and the Lashkar-i-Taiba perceive jihad against India as their religious obligation. If they have their way, these bloodthirsty terrorists would like to slaughter innocents every other week. What stops the ideologically anti-India terrorists to carry out their heinous acts is not necessarily the alertness of the security forces.

Until now, the terrorists were effectively on the ISI’s leash. Pakistan has been using terrorism as an instrument of diplomacy against India. It was a reckless pursuit, yet Pakistan has been mindful of not crossing the threshold of Indian tolerance. That India might react militarily beyond a point has always been part of Pakistan’s calculations.

India’s relentless campaign against cross-border terrorism has shown some positive results; no significant terrorist attack has taken place in India since 26/11, is a point in case. On the contrary, destructive non-state actors are not bound by any state interest or the necessity of preserving the state.

India needs to be wary about the likes of the recently killed Ilyas Kashmiri, who was, it was rumoured, preparing to take over as al-Qaeda chief after Osama bin Laden’s killing. Before his death, he had turned against his mentors and ‘313 Brigade’ was supposed to have carried out attack on Pakistan’s naval base. In case Pakistan plunges into chaos, the loose cannons like Ilyas Kashmiri will feel freer to promote their terrorism against India. It is a scary scenario: a ‘fragile’ Pakistan may turn out to be more disastrous for its immediate neighbours. 

The writer is a Srinagar-based columnist and political analyst.