DNA Money Edit: Will India's trade growth continue?

Amid the rising crude prices and falling rupee, India's global trade has recorded 16.32% in 2017-18. According to Commerce Department, country's global trade rose to $767.9 billion this fiscal from $660.2 billion in the previous year. Its total trade with Latin American countries (LAC) including Bolivia, Peru, Chile and Brazil grew 19.6% to $29.33 billion in 2017-18. While Bolivia emerged as a major trade partner for India in LAC region, thanks to the small base, the two-way trade with Brazil has spurted to $8.56 billion from $6.51 billion in 2016-17.

If the trade war between the US and China intensifies, which is unlikely, it may lead to some spillover impact on India. China remains the largest import partner for India with close to $70 billion of goods purchased from the country in the first 11 months of 2017-18. India's exports to China have been a fraction of it, at $12 billion.

The US continues to be the largest export market and second largest source of imports with total trade in goods at $66 billion in the first 11 months. Analysts aver that India is unlikely to be considered by China as a potential replacement source for its US imports. If the trade war continues, 15% of bilateral trade is likely to suffer from higher tariffs, and the spillover impact on world trade from lower bilateral trade may make life difficult for Indian exports.