DNA Money Edit: Road ahead for India’s rupee

After going through the most turbulent week in more than two years, the Indian rupee has made a strong comeback from its lifetime low. Heavy dollar unwinding and a robust rally in domestic equities have led to rupee’s biggest one-day vault against the greenback in seven weeks. 

The Walmart-Flipkart deal and the US-China trade talks are likely to prop up the rupee, this week. But all these have not quelled fears of a prolonged downturn ahead.

Surely, the rupee was hit by pressures from global monetary tightening and more recently, contagion from the Turkey crisis. It has dropped 9% against the US dollar since the start of 2018, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia.

Foreign direct investment inflows have slowed down and no longer cover the current account deficit. The current account deficit has widened as global oil prices have risen and stood at 1.9% of Gross Domestic Product in the quarter ended March 2018, up from 1.6% in 2017.

However, the recent sharp sell-off in the rupee will have limited impact on India’s sovereign credit profile due to relatively strong external finances, especially the low level of external debt, says Fitch. The total foreign-currency external debt, including the private sector, is only 13% of GDP, which is one of the lowest among major emerging markets.