Why ex-Maharashtra Home Minister RR Patil faces an uphill battle in Tasgaon

Barely two days before he made that dreadful statement, ex Home Minister and Nationalist Congress Party leader RR Patil was confident of his victory. Sitting relaxed at one of his supporters’ house, Patil declared this indeed was the easiest of the elections he had contested so far.

For Patil, it had been a struggle to get elected from Tasgaon assembly segment. Not that he isn’t a popular leader over here. He had always had to put up with local adversaries who would not want RR as he is generally called in these parts to go higher up on the ladder. Sanjay Patil, who is now an MP after he was elected on BJP ticket in 2014 Loksabha elections, had always been a thorn in the flesh for RR. 

There were speculations that Sanjay was being pumped by RR’s cabinet colleague Jayant Patil, who hails from the neighbouring Islampur assembly constituency. NCP finally tried to buy a truce between Sanjay Patil and RR by making the former an MLC. The move worked but only to an extent. The old rivalry is not buried at all and will raise its fangs in the ensuing assembly even if his supporters want to wish him away. Now that Sanjay Patil is MP, he is likely to hit back with full force and what may work in his favour finally is two factors- anti-incumbency of 15 years and the remains of a Modi tsunami that demolished all equations barely five months ago.

Going around the constituency, one could see signs of prosperity all around in Tasgaon. Sugarcane, grapes and turmeric crops have brought enough money to the farmers and yet that could be the bane for RR. Local youth seem to be in awe of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who held a massive meeting in RR Patil’s constituency. On a ground that could easily fill over one lakh, Modi had managed to attract crowd that surpassed one and half lakh. RR’s supporters claim the meeting is not going to have any effect. “The meeting was attended by people outside the constituency. Eight candidates in the district brought their own crowd. People in our constituency were in Jat that day to listen to Sharad Pawar,” one of them explained. And yet, a crowd of that size was never witnessed in Tasgaon. A Prime Minister had never been there. A Prime Minister who has an undeniable charisma and changed all equations in the last Loksabha elections with his convincing oratory.

Add to this the fact that RR is up against who was his own party colleague- Ajit Ghorpade who joined BJP only recently. Ghorpade has a decent following in Kavthe Mahankal, that is part of the Tasgaon constituency. But RR is confident the caste equations will work in his favour. “Ghorpade has been extremely caustic to the Dhangar community. He has always referred to them with utter contempt. That would earn him Maratha votes. But the Maratha community has two leaders to choose from. “Dhangar community will never vote for Ghorpade,”  avers Patil. Dhangar votes will play a crucial part in Tasgaon and Modi had been scathing when he attacked NCP for what he called backstabbing the community. His sharp attack in Baramati over reservation for Dhangar community had evoked strong response. It will be interesting to see then how Patil manages to calm the community.

Patil’s silent critics in the constituency are aware of his ‘trickery’ that could change atmosphere overnight. The youths standing at the paan shop don’t say this with praise in their tone…they detest it. You ask them who is likely to win this election and all they will say…it’s tough to say.

Patil wouldn’t admit it.  “Lok Sabha was a different ball game. Assembly polls are a different story altogether. I believe in the Lok Sabha elections, the party has a bigger sway. The candidate cannot reach out to all his voters. In the assembly elections, it’s a 50-50 game - 50% it’s the party and 50% the candidate. Issues this election are different,” says Patil. And yet he doesn’t have an answer to the 15 years’ anti-incumbency. To his credit, Patil has managed to bring water from Tembhu and Takari dams to his constituency which had been a big headache for him in all the past elections.

As Patil is explaining us the equations in his constituency, his supporters tell him how the local MNS candidate has gone missing after his maid lodged a complaint of rape against him. Patil doesn’t want to even consider him as his opponent. “He doesn’t have any standing at all,” dismisses Patil.

And yet the same candidate that didn’t have any standing against Patil evoked the rape remark from him that was reminiscent of his faux pas post 26/11. “If he had to commit rape, he should have at least waited till he became legislator,” Patil would say at a meeting held on Saturday. Though he tendered an apology later, the damage is done. It remains to be seen how the maverick will surmount the hurdles this elections. Will he?

Also Read: RR Patil triggers fresh controversy, says MNS candidate could have committed rape after elections