Narendra Modi’s economic 'vision': Is BJP selling what UPA made?

With much anticipation, I awaited the rolling out of the BJP’s proposed economic policies for India. According to some TV pundits, Narendra Modi would conjure up a vision that would catch the nation’s collective fancy and propel the BJP to power. All this talk may have worried his opponents; it shouldn’t have. Modi’s “vision” and “plan” for the economy, as shared in recent speeches, fell woefully short of expectations; a damp squib, if you will.

Conjurer of the vision thing
In speeches at FICCI and the BJP’s national council meeting, Modi rolled out his “vision” for India’s economy. Before regaling the audience with his ideas, he launched into a customary bashing of the UPA for the “despair” prevailing in India and how ours had become a country of “underachievers”. While there can be no disagreement that we can do more and better, Modi does disservice to the nation by talking it down, and by not showing pride in all that has been achieved. Perhaps he is not aware or would rather that people forgot the following: India is now a middle-income country; there are 140 million fewer extremely poor Indians; we have had a stable, if not sexy, government that ensured, for the most part, very high growth rates that will be tough for future governments to match. The UPA managed all this “underachievement” in an exceedingly difficult global economic climate and challenging domestic coalition politics.

So, what is this ModiVision? The main planks of Modi’s programme are education, healthcare, urbanisation, and infrastructure, apart from tackling inflation and black money. He also mentioned good governance, agriculture, and services. It was an all encompassing “vision” that left many observers, well, underwhelmed. The general criticism has been that his ideas are either not original or provide little in terms of specifics, or any description of trade-offs necessary to deal with competing priorities. I will take a somewhat down-to-earth view of his high flying ideas: is Modi selling what the UPA has already made?

Of dreamers and doers
Let’s start with Modi’s concern for education. He said the BJP’s dream was “to have an IIM, an IIT and an AIIMS in all states.” While he and the BJP have been dreaming, the UPA has been doing. The number of central universities has gone up from 17 in 2004 to 44 in 2013, IIMs from six to 16, IITs from seven to 16. The gross enrolment ratio has increased from 12% to 18% in higher education, within striking distance of the international average of 20%. For a country of India’s size, that is a huge change.

But in emphasizing higher education, Modi let slip his tendency to focus on grand things, neglecting the building blocks that make modern economies click. I refer to school education. Under the UPA, there has been a tenfold increase in expenditures on the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan to improve rural literacy. Along with this, an expanded mid-day meal scheme benefiting 10 crore children is keeping kids in school for much longer. Having said that, and as a recent report by the Annual Status of Education Report indicated, the learning aspect has not kept pace with enrolment and that is where we must focus in future. For example, in Modi’s Gujarat, fewer than 27% of students in grades VI-VII can do division (among the worst ratios in the country). We must consolidate our gains by sharpening our focus on learning in schools, and simultaneously promote higher education and skill development opportunities.

On health, Modi’s big idea is a still-to-be-defined insurance programme. Meanwhile, not only has the UPA increased public investment in health almost threefold since 2004, progress is being made in exactly the areas he talked about. For instance, the UPA has revamped the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana, a health insurance scheme for patients below the poverty line. Almost four crore smart cards for RSBY beneficiaries have already been issued. With the conversion of the National Rural Health Mission to a National Health Mission, urban poor and middle class families will now benefit from increased investments in healthcare as well. Most importantly, health outcomes are improving. Infant and maternal mortality are decreasing, and life expectancy has increased by 5 years during the UPA’s tenure. These are no mean achievements.

Command and control in 21st century India
With an eye on middle-class voters, Modi talked up infrastructure and urbanisation as if anybody is against such things. True to his rhetorical style, he spoke of building a hundred smart cities and bullet trains. How do we get there? He will tell us later; trust him.

But, what does the UPA’s record suggest? Infrastructure, especially in the road and power sectors has seen phenomenal growth. Rural roads have grown by 2 lakh km; investments under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana went up tenfold. A scheme envisioned by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was put on steroids by the UPA. Power lines have been drawn to 4.6 lakh villages; India has added more power capacity in the last 9 years than in the preceding period since independence. Per capita consumption of electricity has gone up from 559 kWh to 813 kWh since the NDA’s “Shining India” campaign. Towns are transforming into cities, modern airports are coming up, Metros and rail links are unclogging urban streets. The great Indian middle class, almost the size of the United States, has come of age in the last 10 years. To keep up with this growth, we must ensure a smooth transition from a largely rural to a more urban economy. But that will require more than a rhetorician-in-chief.

I should have seen this coming. The BJP talked about tax reforms and proposed a laughable bank transactions tax; Modi hid behind states’ rights to stall the much-needed Goods and Services Tax reform and then has the cheek to propose a national agricultural market; the BJP loves to talk about poor investor sentiment but plays vote bank politics over FDI in retail; they rail against inflation, then propose a command-and-control, overarching price stabilisation fund; they cry hoarse over corruption but rehabilitate smugglers of illegal raw material to China. The BJP’s rhetorical packaging is good; the underlying product is a dud. I don’t want to say “I told you so” after it is too late. I would rather we all pay attention now.

Salman Anees Soz is a media panellist of the Indian National Congress. Views expressed are personal. He tweets @SalmanSoz.