Decoding the Modi-Sharif meeting at Ufa

Another shake hand, another peace build-up followed by a drone or a toy drone episode, firing on the border, hand-wringing by jaded old experts, ‘Pakistan can’t be trusted, we told you so’, yawwwn, gimme the remote…

Wait a minute. People often quote Einstein as saying that to expect different results from the same experiment would be foolish. But we must assume he was talking of physics, not human beings. More appropriate for humans may be what Ralph Waldo Emerson had said: Consistency is the virtue of an ass. So let us look at the fast evolving geo-political scenario with fresher eyes, to see if newer inferences might be drawn from facts which appear to be a replay of the past.

It is true that there are many trigger-happy elements in the mix, more on Pakistani side with its ISI, Talibans and Lashkars, who have huge existential stakes in Indo-Pak hostility. So any peace initiatives, if and when they become strategic imperatives, necessarily have to be hush-hush. India too has many naysayers to any Indo-Pak rapprochement, the most important one being the Shiv Sena. In a fast changing world–oven fresh developments in Iran, Greece and Ufa can singly or collectively change the global order as we know it—it is important for all players to continually refresh their cost/ benefit analyses. So let us see the evolving situation from the points-of-view (PoV) of the two governments and the leaders and also re-visit the torpedo potential of the naysayers.

From the Pakistani government’s PoV, there has never been a better time for deal making with India than now. China, despite defending Pakistan stoutly in all international forums, has drawn its own red lines on terrorism since it is directly affected by the output of the Pakistani terror factories. Moreover, there is a carrot worth over $40 billion for Pakistan. That is a deal no Sharif, civilian or military, can jeopardise. In any case, after last year’s Peshawar school attack, General Raheel Sharif seems to have gone after the bad guys in Pakistan’s Wild West with some gusto and this is reflected in his growing clout with the US. From all indications, Pakistan’s civil-military relationship has not been as good for decades as it is now and there are reports that Gen. Sharif was on board with plans to shake hands with India in Ufa. Add to the mix the Iranian nuclear deal, which is the best news energy-starved nations like Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have had in decades. The only pain point, certainly for PM Sharif and possibly even for Gen. Sharif, is the eastern border with its cross border incidents and the JuD/ LeT/ Hurriyat which seem like, having outlived their utility, are now becoming an international embarrassment. If somehow there is a face-saving deal on Kashmir, these elements can be eased out and Pakistan can see some wealth and happiness on the horizon that Nawaz Sharif, as businessmen's candidate, had promised.

From India’s PoV, one year of globe-trotting may have reassured Modi that the world is tired of problem’s on India’s western borders and irrespective of historical baggage, would like nothing better than to remove K from the sub-continental alphabet. This would have been enough for India if only Modi’s ambitions were limited to retaining the status quo. Then the stalemate with Pakistan could have been allowed to be continued indefinitely. But Modi has bigger ambitions. He wants to make India an economic superpower; he wants a Security Council seat. The world powers too want to ensure that if ever India were to become a real economic superpower, it will be a friend and have voiced their backing. Among the present Security Council members, the only one with some reservations about India is China. But the Chinese think in terms of decades and centuries, not 4 or 5-year election cycles. Their ‘Silk Road’ vision, both land-based and maritime, is mind boggling in scope and overtly at least attempts to create a ‘win-win’ situation for everyone in the path. China thinks of US as its only real rival in superpower stakes and skillfully plans to co-opt everyone it can in its mission to be number one. Why would it agree to pump in $20 billion worth of investments in India if it thought of India only as an ‘enemy’ as some analysts would have us believe? With that kind of investment come lots of factories and jobs and economic activity and people with stakes in a long term Indo-China partnership. If somehow there was a decent accommodation of the border issue on lands where, in  Nehru’s words,  ‘not a blade of grass grows’, China too may be tempted to let India join the Security Council, perhaps in a new non-veto category, to help bring in an ‘Asian Century’.  Greece already looks like it is becoming a quagmire for Western dominated IMF and other institutions. So the stage may be set for the Indo-China led BRICS Bank to take its place in the sun. Beijing would have noted, like Washington and Islamabad, that the Bangladesh land accord demonstrated Modi’s ability to deliver on big deals. From Chinese PoV too, it may be time to promote some pawns to Bishops and Rooks.

Let us revisit Ufa. What could possibly explain why India boldly reached out to Pakistan? The US and other big boys, while nudging Modi along to have some accommodation with Pakistan, needed to dangle a carrot. Given India’s comfortable position on practically all other important matters, there could only be one carrot— a Security Council seat.  And how can China possibly accept India’s claim to the seat without delivering something of huge political value to its all-weather ally Pakistan? Oh yes, the President of China made a statement two days ago that Pakistan should also be given a waiver by the Nuclear Suppliers Group for its ‘Nuclear Energy’ program!  So does the big picture suggest that all the ducks are finally coming in line for India to seriously shoot for a Security Council seat? Looks like it.

Let us look at the spoilers too. As far as the JuD/ LeT/ Hurriyat are concerned, the  Sharifs can probably rein in most of them since they control the purse strings. Already, by excluding Hurriyat from the Ufa deal, Pakistan has signaled its downgrading, reflected clearly in Hurriyat’s boycott of the Iftar party hosted by the Pakistani High Commissioner in Delhi. Naqvi could well be the next sacrificial pawn. Some last ditch violent attacks from the likes of JuD/ LeT and their sympathisers in the Pakistani establishment seem very likely and may partly be playing out on the border right now.

On the Indian side, there is only Shiv Sena which might have serious objections to India shaking hands with Pakistan. But this is Shiv Sena Mark II. It has a sober leader in Uddhav Thackeray and can be persuaded to come around when the time is right. Didn’t the BJP recently counsel the Sena that it is no longer the same Pakistan? It may not be the same BJP or Shiv Sena either. If one week is a long time in politics, the pitch digging Shiv Sena and Sharm-el Sheikh may well be ancient history.