#dnaEdit: Uneasy partnerships

In Monday, the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress kicked off its poll campaign with elaborate rituals and a poor turnout, leaving its ally NCP wondering if it’s the end of the road for the alliance. This is the season of discontent in the state where the other political combine — that of Shiv Sena and the BJP — isn’t in the pink of health, either. BJP president Amit Shah’s maiden visit to Mumbai on September 4 doesn’t include a meeting with Uddhav Thackeray, giving rise to furious speculations of an imminent rift. It’s the same old story of seat-sharing: who can arm-twist the other for a bigger share of the 288 constituencies.

Before every Lok Sabha or assembly poll, the BJP and the Shiv Sena engage in public spats — threatening to go it alone — only to join hands at the last moment. It was no different in the last general elections; now, too, they have adhered to the same script, the only crucial difference being Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray nominating himself as the chief ministerial aspirant, and fighting the polls for the first time as a candidate. 

There is a new-found confidence in the Sena, perhaps also triggered by the BJP’s washout in Uttarakhand and Bihar by-elections. At the same time it is threatened by the BJP’s big-brotherly attitude. When the latter parted ways with the Haryana Janhit Congress late last month, Uddhav’s party took it as a sign of impending doom — that its quarter-century friendship with the BJP could be a casualty in the pre-poll skirmish. What has fed this fear is Shah’s speech to party workers in August, urging them to ensure that the party wins an absolute majority in the state elections. Then, the BJP becomes the sole claimant to the Chief Minister’s post. As expected, such exhortations haven’t gone down well with the Sena. Shah’s Mumbai visit, to step up efforts to dislodge the Congress-NCP, will also tackle BJP’s internecine rivalry. As of now seat-sharing talks have taken a backseat.

The prevalent mood in Maharashtra doesn’t appear to favour the Congress and the NCP. For them it’s a desperate struggle for survival. Given their precarious positions, it makes a lot of sense to put up a joint resistance against the saffron rivals. The NCP till now is holding its ground, hoping that the Congress will relent. Sharad Pawar’s earlier talks with Sonia Gandhi over seat-sharing weren’t fruitful, leading many to believe that this time a split is inevitable. The last general elections have been a humiliating experience for the Congress. In Maharashtra, it could manage only two seats, while the NCP got four. Given the ground realities, the NCP is least likely to put up with the Congress’s tantrums. The mood within the state Congress is not too upbeat. It appears helpless in the face of NCP’s demand for 144 seats. 

But Pawar’s position isn’t secure either. The NCP is in the throes of a grave crisis. There has been an exodus of its leaders moving to the BJP-Sena camp. Moreover, with the ageing patriarch refusing to contest this time and nephew Ajit is dogged by controversies, these are dark days for the NCP as well.

If old equations finally crumble, the assembly polls would see a tough fight among five parties — including the MNS. Such a scenario might throw up unlikely winners and a fractured mandate.