#dnaEdit: Tell-tail signs

Even at the risk of being branded a party pooper, it must be reiterated that the spectacular figures thrown up by the latest tiger census need to be taken with a fistful of salt. The central government has now announced a 30% jump in the big cat population — a remarkable increase from 1,706 in 2010 to 2,226 in 2014. A scenario too good to be true, even though the modus operandi adopted for tiger enumeration appears quite modern. The two-pronged strategy called the double sampling methodology involves photographing the tigers and then counting paw marks and droppings. However, the number arrived at by combining the two sets of data has been questioned by a section of wildlife experts and the Odisha government. The current method developed in 1938 and put to use every four years has been criticised for lacking in precision. Experts advocate the occupancy modelling (OM) approach, which is more scientific and cost-effective. In vogue since 2000, the OM process helps locate newly established tiger populations and tracks groups that have perished.

The double sampling methodology has also raised the hackles of the Odisha government as it shows a steep decline in tiger numbers in the state — plunging from 132 in 2004 to 45 now. The state’s wildlife experts have cast aspersions on the National Tiger Conservation Authority’s report, attributing the flaws to the shortcomings of the enumerators. The other contentious issue has been the tearing hurry of the Union government to release the census report when counting is still underway.

Regardless of the timing of the revelation and accuracy of the exercise, Union environment minister Prakash Javadekar’s ‘crowning achievement’ — a result of the former UPA government’s conservation practices — rides on a few caveats. Tigers occupy only 200,000 sq kms of the original 300,000 sq kms of the country’s forest area. Out of the 2 lakh sq kms, a mere 20% can boast of a reasonable tiger density. This means vast swathes of forest land, meant to be home to the striped cats, lie unutilised, when there is a dire need to increase the number and size of habitats. A shrinking prey base due to rampant poaching has pushed tigers away from traditional locales. Moreover, a jump in the head count doesn’t mean the big cats are safe from human greed. As per government estimates, between 2011 and 2014, India lost 274 tigers to poaching and unexplained causes. The Wildlife Protection Society of India, which on its own found at least 110 tigers killed for wildlife trade around the same time, considers the government data far short of reality.

True, in some cases the tiger-conservation measures have yielded results, but the success may well be short-lived. The new government’s dilution of environmental laws, resulting in the setting up of industries in forest areas, will have dangerous consequences, not only for tigers, but other less talked about, but equally important, species, facing extinction.

The growing awareness about the tiger’s precarious state has helped it to claw back, but the crisis is far from over.