#dnaEdit: Sober victories

The focus of the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and in Jharkhand has been on how well the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would fare after the tireless campaigning of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has done well in the two states but not as well as the party would have liked it to be. Of course, the members of BJP will not accept readily that elections cannot be fought on the strength of an iconic leader alone. It has turned out that Modi did not fail, but that he is not a sufficient factor for victory. In J&K, the party has dominated Jammu, but it did not do well at all in the Kashmir Valley or in Ladakh. 

It seemed that incumbent National Conference (NC) and the Congress would be marginalised but that did not happen. The two parties managed to keep a reduced but respectable presence, and their seats remain in the double digit figure. The Congress has an upper hand in Ladakh. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has emerged the single largest party in the state, with a majority of its seats coming from the Valley. 

The interpretation being offered is that there is now a divide between the two major parts of the state — Kashmir and Jammu. In the earlier elections as well, different parties won in the two regions. The apprehensions of the divide between a Hindu-majority Jammu and a Muslim-majority Kashmir have proved to be exaggerated. Sub-regional conflict of interests are bound to exist and is part of a healthy democratic diversity.

This is the third state assembly election — the earlier two were held in 2002 and in 2008 — this century, and it would be safe to assume that the electoral process is becoming the norm. There will still be talk of the need to address the Kashmir question, as there will be moves and countermoves. It would be futile to expect radical breakthroughs and the status quo will persist. Neither the uncompromising separatists nor the Hindu ultra-nationalists can impose their solutions on the state. It is the feckless middle-of-the-road parties — whatever their posturings — that will manage the affairs of the state. With the PDP poised to form the government, it seems that power in the state will be in the hands of one of the two regional parties — NC or PDP. NC came to power in 1996 and 2008, and the PDP in 2002 and 2014.

The Jharkhand scenario is not too tidy either. The BJP has just the necessary numbers but it is no landslide victory. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) of Shibu Soren has not been edged out and other smaller parties like Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) remain key players as well. Ever since its inception in 2001, the state, with two spells of President’s Rule, has not had a stable government. The BJP is not in a position to form a government on its own. It is possible that the party could lead a stable coalition government this time round. But it is not going to be a cakewalk. The BJP will need to exercise its political skills to steer the state through the political shoals in the next five years.  

There is a lesson in this for the BJP. Its dreams of being the single dominant party in the national polity — ruling at the Centre and in the states — look unrealistic. The BJP has to accept the fact that India is a multi-party democracy and no one party can lord over it.