#dnaEdit: SAARC falters again

Two interesting strands emerged at the 18th South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) at Kathmandu. First, the demand from some of the member-countries that China should be given a more participatory role in the SAARC scheme, either as a member — which is really an absurd suggestion — or as a dialogue partner. India shot down the idea with firmness instead of beating around the bush. Second, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech at the inaugural session of the summit on Wednesday morning was loud, clear and emphatic about what India as the biggest country in the region would do to strengthen the SAARC. He reiterated his old themes of connectivity, trade, tourism to make it happen. The conflict is between the desire of SAARC members to get China in and Modi’s assertive declaration about India’s dominant presence in the regional grouping. 

It is for the first time that SAARC has made a demand on behalf of China so openly. It is no more a diplomatic murmur, nor is it a back-channel move. It reveals that member-countries are very clear about their view of India as the big brother, and they want another big country to counter this. This is not about trade. This is about power relations. When countries outside the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), including India, sought membership in the grouping including that of a dialogue partner, they were looking to be part of the vibrant economic scenario, and enjoy the trade advantages that flow out of it. The SAARC is not comparable to ASEAN in terms of a thriving economic zone. When SAARC countries want to include China they do not have in mind trade and other economic advantages. China poses the same dangers to the smaller SAARC countries in matters of trade as does India. The SAARC countries believe that the presence of China would be a strategic counter to India. And they can even point to the pre-existing conspicuous strategic Chinese presence in the region, in Pakistan, in Nepal, in Sri Lanka, and even in Bangladesh. It will be impossible for India to yield ground on the issue of expanding SAARC only to cut India down to size.

Despite Modi’s optimism and assurances, it will be difficult for SAARC to go forward if the member-countries are not able to resolve prejudices, inhibitions and fears about India. It will continue to exist as it has in the last 27 years without realising its full potential. There is, however, the alternate scenario. It is the gradual evolving of closer economic cooperation among the SAARC countries, and that the imperatives of trade will override political compulsions. Pakistan is only too keen to improve its economic ties with India because Pakistan businesses see tremendous opportunity in India. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka are awakening to the fact that India could be an attractive market for their goods as Europe and America are still reeling under the effects of recession. A proactive India can only nudge its members towards economic bonding, but it may not even happen.

SAARC is in trouble because of India-Pakistan rivalry. SAARC members want these two countries to settle their bilateral disputes so that the grouping can forge ahead. It is quite unlikely that India, Pakistan will be able to reach out to each other because they have not been able to shed the legacy of their troubled history. The prospects for SAARC are none too bright.