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#dnaEdit: Rafale deal-India needs 20-year perspective on its defence needs

The purchase of 36 French fighter planes appears stuck at the final stage of negotiations over pricing and the IAF’s demand for India-specific customisation.

#dnaEdit: Rafale deal-India needs 20-year perspective on its defence needs
Modi, Hollande

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited France in April, 2015, he made the surprising announcement of buying 36 Rafale fighter planes off the shelf. There were two reasons behind the impromptu statement. First, there was a sense of urgency that the Indian Air Force needed to replenish the fighter squadrons at the earliest. Second, it showed that Modi was keen to take quick decisions instead of getting caught in interminable commercial negotiations. But the deal over the 36 planes is yet to be concluded. During his three-day visit to India, French President Francois Hollande, who was also the chief guest at the Republic Day parade on Tuesday, said some financial issues were to be sorted out. 

The India-France joint statement issued on Monday mentioned an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA), which foreign secretary S Jaishankar referred to as Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), over the 36 Rafale fighter planes. Instead of the phrase “off the shelf” that Modi used in Paris in April, 2015, this time round, the phrase was “flyaway condition”. The delivery schedule would only be finalised after the commercial agreement is signed.

There seems to be a difference in point of view on the purchase because the Indian Air Force wants an India-specific customised fighter plane, and the French side is pointing out that this would entail further delays. There is also the price issue. India is pressing for a lower price. At the moment, the 36 aircraft would cost Rs60,000 crore.

There is an argument in the security forces, as well as defence experts, whether India should continue to depend on Russia for its defence purchases because the security forces are much more at home with the Russian equipment. It is also the case that with regard to fighter planes, from the MiGs to the Sukhois — the Russians are willing to transfer production know-how as well. The French have not yet agreed to the transfer of technology and production in India. 

This should not however be taken to mean that India should not, or cannot, diversify its sources of defence purchases. It had been done right from the 1980s, when India broke away from the Russian — then the Soviet Union — monopoly, and purchased the Mirage fighter planes from France and Jaguars from Britain. The Mirages had become obsolete over the years, and the French have been retrofitting some of them. Despite the tough and protracted negotiations, India will buy the fighter planes from France. The delays only underscore the point that key and large commercial transactions are not done in a jiffy, and that it does take time not only to conclude the deals but also for the planes to be delivered and integrated into the air force.

What is needed then is to anticipate the need for new aircraft and equipment much ahead in time. It appears that the time-frame will be about 10 years from the time of initial exploration to the final delivery of the planes. It means then that the IAF will have to look at its needs in the late 2020s and early 2030s, and the initiatives need to begin right away.

It might be difficult to keep the defence plans completely secret when the purchases involve negotiations with international players. But it is quite clear that India needs to have a 20-year perspective on its defence needs.

Though the Modi government is keen to indigenise defence production, it will be many years before this could be achieved. In the meanwhile, India will have to continue to shop around for planes, ships, tanks and guns.

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