#dnaEdit: Fear over Pakistan

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) protesters have laid siege to the capital, Islamabad, for nearly a week now, and they have strengthened their stranglehold on the Pakistan Muslim-Nawaz (PMLN) government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It has raised the all-important question: Is it time for army takeover yet again? Army brass have expressed their reluctance to takeover saying this is a problem that needs to be resolved politically. The troops had however taken over the state-owned Pakistan Television (PTv) to free it of the protesters who occupied it. The official television channel went off the air, raising rumours of a takeover. But it was soon back on air.

There is no doubt that Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician and his fellow-protester cleric Qadri want to go for the kill, and not back away when Sharif is on the verge of capitulation. Khan and Qadri are indeed playing a high-stakes game. Even if Sharif were to relent, the transitional arrangement which will allow elections to be held again, has to be put in place. Sharif had won 176 of 342 seats in the National Assembly in 2013 summer. It was the first time since Pakistan was created in 1947, that there was a democratic transition, with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Asif Aali Zardari gracefully accepting electoral defeat. But the hope that Pakistan is now well and surely anchored in democracy marked by periodic elections now lies in ruins. Khan and Qadri do not inspire confidence because there is not much beyond their protest rhetoric — mainly cleaning up the proverbial Augean stables of national politics. This is however an inadequate agenda with which to govern a difficult country like Pakistan. Khan, a focused cricketer in his time, who sought victory more than anything else on the field, is following the same game plan. He wants to win this match against Sharif after having lost the election last year.

Qadri, the preacher with an evangelist’s fervour, cannot be expected to have a sobering influence on either Khan, Sharif or other political players. Khan and Qadri are not against Sharif and his party alone. They profess to be against all corrupt politicians, including former president Zardari and his Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). 

The predictable denouement would be for army chief Raheel Sharif to step in, dismiss the Sharif government, impose a temporary martial law and promise fair elections soon.

This time round the story may not follow the script. The army is hesitating to take over for two reasons. First, it does not have the assurance of financial and military support from Washington. The army had managed the country’s affairs and woes because the forces were cushioned with the help of generous American aid. Second, General Sharif does not appear keen to grab the opportunity. Leaders in the White House will have to review the situation seriously. US secretary of state John Kerry is mobilising world opinion to back action — read war —  against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Regardless of whether it is military or civilian, Americans would want a stable regime in Islamabad.
What happens in Pakistan is a matter of concern in India, but there is nothing that New Delhi can do to influence the course of events. It would only make things worse even if it manages to exert some influence. It will open the door for the army to step in.