Climate Change: India's clean-up act begins

India, the world’s fourth largest polluter, has unveiled its climate action plan for 2030 with some ambitious goals, but the big question is where the finance would come to help India meet them. India has made some progress towards improving energy efficiency, which was domestically financed, but the more difficult, capital and technology-intensive actions lie ahead. India’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) aims to cut emission intensity (CO2 emission per unit of GDP) by 33-35 per cent from 2005 levels, scale up share of non-fossil fuels to 40 per cent of total energy production, and create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes through enhancing forest and tree cover, all by 2030. The catch is that our adaptation and mitigation actions are estimated to cost around $1 trillion between now and 2030, and India is looking to developed nations to help finance India’s climate action plan. Considering that the West has been the most destructive polluter in history and has far fewer developmental imperatives than India, where nearly one-third of citizens live in extreme poverty and one-fourth live without access to electricity, the onus is on developed nations to reciprocate. India’s per capita emissions are just one-eighth of the US and one-third of China’s, but as more people get access to electricity and for longer hours, and the quality of life improves for more people, we are bound to catch up with the other polluters. 

Our choices are stark: continuing as a poor nation is no option, nor can we allow climate change to advance. By 2030, India is aiming for a total installed power generation capacity of 800 GW. The target of 40 per cent or 320 GW from non-fossil fuels is stiff, considering that 70 per cent of our energy needs are met by fossil fuels today. The Indian INDC document lumps nuclear and hydroelectric energy with renewable energy like solar and wind in the attempt to scale down fossil fuel use. Currently, the nuclear power installed capacity is 5.7 GW but the target of 63 GW by 2032 does not factor in the resistance against nuclear plants in India. Similarly, the ambition of scaling hydel power from the existing installed capacity of 46 GW towards a potential of 100 GW is unrealistic with anti-dam movements gaining strength. This leaves us with solar and wind energy. India’ solar installed capacity has barely crossed 4 GW this year but we have set an ambitious target of 100 GW by 2022. Similarly, the wind energy capacity, now at 24 GW, is proposed to be scaled to 60 GW by 2022. If the solar power target set for 2022, which is an astounding 2500 per cent growth target, can be somehow met, we can safely assume that solar energy will help us achieve the 40 per cent target for non-fossil fuels by 2030.

It is in the promise to bolster forest and tree cover that critics have questioned India’s climate action plan. The present dispensation has appeared intent on relaxing forest conservation laws and environmental clearances. It even devised a new clearance-friendly environmental protection regime through a high-level committee that reviewed six environment legislations, but a parliamentary standing committee rejected the high-level committee report for wreaking havoc on established laws. So the doubts raised about the afforestation programme chalked out by the government are valid. There is also no clarity about making polluters pay for higher emissions and we have refrained from specifying sectoral emission cuts. This indicates that there could be changes to India’s INDCs down the road. India’s climate finance strategies currently hinge on the $55 million National Adaptation Fund, reduction in fossil fuel subsidies, and quadrupling coal cess from Rs50 per tonne to Rs200. This is clearly inadequate and the main bone of contention at the Conference of Parties in Paris at December would be to evolve a scalable climate finance model and the free-of-cost transfer of clean technologies.