#dnaEdit: Breaking impasse

The post-electoral scene in Jammu and Kashmir is indeed the most difficult one. It is a hung assembly with a vengeance. Governor’s rule was the only way out after the outgoing Chief Minister Omar Abdullah resigned on Friday. He could not have waited any longer to hand over the reins of administration to his successor. 

Two of the parties have managed to garner a significant chunk of seats in the 87-member legislature. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with 28 seats is the single largest party, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 25. It should have been possible for either of the parties to look for junior partners and form a coalition government. But government formation has become difficult because the other two junior parties, National Conference with 15 and Congress with 12 seats, make it nearly impossible to form a credible alliance. 

The National Conference and Congress had been coalition partners. They performed reasonably well, yet people did not give them the mandate for another term. The PDP cannot hope to align with the National Conference for two reasons. First, the two regional parties are major rivals in the state, especially in the Valley. If they were to come together, each would lose the strategic political space in the state.  

The People’s Democratic Party could have opted for Congress but the two would still fall short of the magic number of 44, for a simple majority. Both PDP and the Congress are fighting shy of joining hands though the two had been part of the governing coalition after the 2002 election, and they had even worked out a compromise whereby the PDP’s  Mufti Muhammad Sayeed was the CM for the first three years of the six-year term, and Congress’ Ghulam Nabi Azad for the next three. In 2006, the Congress — switching sides — had allied with the National Conference. The hurdle in the revival of the PDP-Congress alliance seems to lie in the fact that the two parties have not won any seats in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. A credible government needs to have representation from Jammu.

That is why the BJP, which had won all of its seats from Jammu, and the PDP, which has won only in the Valley, seem to be natural allies. The BJP’s demand that it should share the CM’s post on a rotation base is quite logical. It would also be a vindication of the democratic principle that any person could be the CM of the Muslim-majority state, and the Hindu tag does not matter. But it is politically unviable given the fraught politics of the state.

The PDP fears that if it were to concede to the BJP’s demand and allow a BJP/Hindu CM in the state, it would not only lose its crucial support in the Valley, but also strengthen the separatist elements. This would only exacerbate political tensions. It is for the same reason that a BJP-NC alliance would not work. To allow the junior partner, NC, to have a CM, would be an absurd proposition. At the moment, a BJP CM does not find acceptability in the Valley. 

There are two ways of unravelling the Gordian knot. The first is to allow the PDP to run a minority government, with the other parties not rocking the boat. The Constitution does not bar a minority government as long as it has the confidence of  majority of the members of the assembly. The second is for the BJP to opt for a statesman-like position and offer support to the People’s Democratic party without laying claim to the CM’s office.